Why do I continue to be bearish on SanDisk?

I short SanDisk every time, and many people ask me when to buy the dip.

The core reason is that I think SanDisk above 800U is too expensive. $SNDK

In the latest quarter, SanDisk's revenue grew 51% quarter over quarter, with about two-thirds of the increase coming from price hikes. This shows that its performance is highly dependent on rising prices, rather than expanding sales volumes.

Demand from AI data centers remains strong, and NAND contract prices are continuing to rise. But TrendForce has pointed out that purchasing demand from consumer markets is weak, and some downstream customers are finding it increasingly difficult to absorb high prices.

What makes me even more skeptical is SanDisk's goal of maintaining an adjusted gross margin of around 80% over the long term. The storage industry is clearly cyclical, and even with long-term agreements in place, whether such a high margin can be sustained remains to be proven.

I'm not bearish on the short-term trend of rising prices, but on the market treating cyclical high profits as the long-term norm.
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