Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis: With 2,234 underfoot, here’s where I’m placing stops for longs and shorts
ETH is currently at 2,241, just 4% from the bottom of its 4-hour range. 2,206 below is the nearest line of defense.
▬ The range at a glance
Top 2,435 Bottom 2,234 (boundaries of the high-volume area, 201 points wide)
Reference: The actual high/low over the past 3 days is 2,450 / 2,206 (244 points wide)
Overhead resistance: Daily EMA10 at 2,294, daily EMA20 at 2,337, and the 3-day high at 2,450
Below, in order: Range bottom at 2,234, then the 3-day low at 2,206
The heaviest trading zones: 2,234–2,377 (84 touches); 2,377–2,435 (63 touches)
Typical movement: 46 points over 4 hours, 24 points over 1 hour
▬ Today’s backdrop
US nonfarm payrolls are due today (around 20:30 Beijing time). The date is estimated based on the usual schedule (11-06, expected; check official sources). Of 8 market news items that could indicate direction: 0 bullish, 7 bearish, 1 neutral
▬ View: Slightly bullish
Short-term outlook is slightly bullish, but the daily chart has a bearish moving-average alignment—treat this as a rebound, not a reversal. Daily moving-average references: EMA10 at 2,294 / EMA20 at 2,337 / EMA50 at 2,398.
▬ Historical performance in this setup | 400-day backtest across 16 coins
Bearish daily MA alignment + longs at the range bottom: 524 trades, 42.7% win rate, average -86U, t=-3.13 → historically, this has negative expected value
Whale reference: The 9 addresses I track hold a combined net short position of 72.08 million U in ETH (converted at the current price); the largest ETH short is 12,028 ETH at 2,311, currently worth 26.95 million U
▬ Current market setup
Price is 4% from the bottom of the 4-hour range: 8.7% (4.1 ATR) up to 2,435, and 0.3% (0.1 ATR) down to 2,234
The range is 4.2 ATR wide, making it a relatively wide trading range; volume is steady at 0.8x
Price is already at the lower edge of the range, with the bottom of the high-volume area just 0.3% lower. This is where a long makes sense; a break below would mean the structure has deteriorated—not that it’s simply “fallen enough to bounce”
▬ How to trade it (entries, exits, and stops included)
Long ← Matches my bias
Why: 2,234 below is the lower edge of the high-volume area and acts as support
Entry: 2,234–2,245 (current price is already in this range; entries can be placed in batches)
Confirmation: Only count it if the 4-hour candle closes above 2,245; a brief move above doesn’t count
Stop: 2,214 (risk 25.11 = 1.12%) — 0.4 ATR below the lower edge of the high-volume area
T1 2,377 (RR 1:5.5) → T2 2,435 (RR 1:7.8)
Take-profit plan (same for either direction): Close the entire position at T1. Reason: 4-hour moving averages are tangled while the daily chart is falling—the timeframes conflict. If the shorter timeframe hits its target first, take the exit; don’t gamble on overnight risk.
Breakeven win rate: 15% to reach T1
1% risk per trade → notional position size ≤ 0.9x your capital
Short
Why: All three 4-hour moving averages are above price, creating medium-term resistance; the daily chart has a bearish MA alignment; 2,435 above is the upper edge of the high-volume area, so it’s resistance, not a target
Entry: 2,423–2,435 (current price is 8.1% below this range; wait for a rise to enter, don’t chase)
Confirmation: Only count it if the 4-hour candle closes below 2,423; a brief move below doesn’t count
Stop: 2,454 (risk 25.11 = 1.03%) — 0.4 ATR above the upper edge of the high-volume area
T1 2,377 (RR 1:2.1) → T2 2,234 (RR 1:7.8)
Take-profit plan: Same as above
Breakeven win rate: 32% to reach T1
1% risk per trade → notional position size ≤ 1.0x your capital
▬ Bottom line: At 2,241, ETH is stuck in the middle; going long or short is a gamble. Wait for 2,435 or 2,234 before acting.
Which price level would you wait for before making a move?
The above is based on public data and my own analysis, and is not investment advice. Make your own decisions and take responsibility for them.
$ETH
ETH is currently at 2,241, just 4% from the bottom of its 4-hour range. 2,206 below is the nearest line of defense.
▬ The range at a glance
Top 2,435 Bottom 2,234 (boundaries of the high-volume area, 201 points wide)
Reference: The actual high/low over the past 3 days is 2,450 / 2,206 (244 points wide)
Overhead resistance: Daily EMA10 at 2,294, daily EMA20 at 2,337, and the 3-day high at 2,450
Below, in order: Range bottom at 2,234, then the 3-day low at 2,206
The heaviest trading zones: 2,234–2,377 (84 touches); 2,377–2,435 (63 touches)
Typical movement: 46 points over 4 hours, 24 points over 1 hour
▬ Today’s backdrop
US nonfarm payrolls are due today (around 20:30 Beijing time). The date is estimated based on the usual schedule (11-06, expected; check official sources). Of 8 market news items that could indicate direction: 0 bullish, 7 bearish, 1 neutral
▬ View: Slightly bullish
Short-term outlook is slightly bullish, but the daily chart has a bearish moving-average alignment—treat this as a rebound, not a reversal. Daily moving-average references: EMA10 at 2,294 / EMA20 at 2,337 / EMA50 at 2,398.
▬ Historical performance in this setup | 400-day backtest across 16 coins
Bearish daily MA alignment + longs at the range bottom: 524 trades, 42.7% win rate, average -86U, t=-3.13 → historically, this has negative expected value
Whale reference: The 9 addresses I track hold a combined net short position of 72.08 million U in ETH (converted at the current price); the largest ETH short is 12,028 ETH at 2,311, currently worth 26.95 million U
▬ Current market setup
Price is 4% from the bottom of the 4-hour range: 8.7% (4.1 ATR) up to 2,435, and 0.3% (0.1 ATR) down to 2,234
The range is 4.2 ATR wide, making it a relatively wide trading range; volume is steady at 0.8x
Price is already at the lower edge of the range, with the bottom of the high-volume area just 0.3% lower. This is where a long makes sense; a break below would mean the structure has deteriorated—not that it’s simply “fallen enough to bounce”
▬ How to trade it (entries, exits, and stops included)
Long ← Matches my bias
Why: 2,234 below is the lower edge of the high-volume area and acts as support
Entry: 2,234–2,245 (current price is already in this range; entries can be placed in batches)
Confirmation: Only count it if the 4-hour candle closes above 2,245; a brief move above doesn’t count
Stop: 2,214 (risk 25.11 = 1.12%) — 0.4 ATR below the lower edge of the high-volume area
T1 2,377 (RR 1:5.5) → T2 2,435 (RR 1:7.8)
Take-profit plan (same for either direction): Close the entire position at T1. Reason: 4-hour moving averages are tangled while the daily chart is falling—the timeframes conflict. If the shorter timeframe hits its target first, take the exit; don’t gamble on overnight risk.
Breakeven win rate: 15% to reach T1
1% risk per trade → notional position size ≤ 0.9x your capital
Short
Why: All three 4-hour moving averages are above price, creating medium-term resistance; the daily chart has a bearish MA alignment; 2,435 above is the upper edge of the high-volume area, so it’s resistance, not a target
Entry: 2,423–2,435 (current price is 8.1% below this range; wait for a rise to enter, don’t chase)
Confirmation: Only count it if the 4-hour candle closes below 2,423; a brief move below doesn’t count
Stop: 2,454 (risk 25.11 = 1.03%) — 0.4 ATR above the upper edge of the high-volume area
T1 2,377 (RR 1:2.1) → T2 2,234 (RR 1:7.8)
Take-profit plan: Same as above
Breakeven win rate: 32% to reach T1
1% risk per trade → notional position size ≤ 1.0x your capital
▬ Bottom line: At 2,241, ETH is stuck in the middle; going long or short is a gamble. Wait for 2,435 or 2,234 before acting.
Which price level would you wait for before making a move?
The above is based on public data and my own analysis, and is not investment advice. Make your own decisions and take responsibility for them.
$ETH