Market Maker’s View: $BTC Daily Recap: Review of Yesterday’s Six Posts—More Than Half of the Upside Breaks Failed, While All Downside Breaks Triggered
Snapshot 09:39 SGT: Price 76,156.1, 24h high 80,886.4 / low 75,143.5, approximately -5.43% over 24h, OI approximately $2.647 billion, current funding rate 0.0025%/8h.
Yesterday in a nutshell: Price hovered around 80,500 all day, then closed below the band at 20:00. At 23:00, a long vacuum-move wick probed 75,511 before closing at 76,000. The upside level held for the entire day only once, in the morning.
Post-by-post verification, all based on 1H closing prices:
Early-morning post: No hourly close reached above 81,199.9 all day—failed. The 03:00 close at 79,951.6 fell back below 80,000, and the 22:00 close at 78,279.8 broke below 78,690.8—both downside levels triggered.
Check-in post: The move above 81,600 never triggered—failed. The 20:00 close at 79,670.8 broke below 80,100—the pullback played out.
Morning post: Three closes from 09:00 to 11:00 held above 80,500—the band-break retest played out in the morning. The 12:00 close at 80,488.3 fell back below, invalidating it for the day. The 20:00 close fell below 80,000—the band floor gave way.
Recap post: The 10:00 close at 80,541.2 held above 80,500—the retest played out. The 20:00 close fell below 80,000, invalidating the retest.
Midday post: The 12:00 close at 80,488.3 fell back 11.7 dollars below 80,500, invalidating the retest. In the afternoon, only the 14:00 close moved back above; at 15:00 it fell back below. The 20:00 close fell below 80,000—the band floor gave way.
Evening post: The 20:00 and 21:00 closes both failed to move back above 80,500—the recovery failed. The 20:00 close fell below 80,000, and the 22:00 close at 78,279.8 broke below 79,302—the downside levels triggered.
Today’s focus: The 08:00 close at 76,295.2 did not reach 76,530, so an upside breakout did not trigger. A 10:00 close above 76,530 would signal a breakout, with 77,700 next in focus. A fall back below 76,000 would mean continued choppy trading; a break below 75,600 would add downside pressure, with 75,000–75,300 next in focus. All eight overnight closes held above 75,600. Today’s 16:00 options expiry and 21:30 nonfarm payrolls are still ahead.
Figure 1 is today’s learning card: Range-bound markets vs. trending markets—two different playbooks.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerView
Snapshot 09:39 SGT: Price 76,156.1, 24h high 80,886.4 / low 75,143.5, approximately -5.43% over 24h, OI approximately $2.647 billion, current funding rate 0.0025%/8h.
Yesterday in a nutshell: Price hovered around 80,500 all day, then closed below the band at 20:00. At 23:00, a long vacuum-move wick probed 75,511 before closing at 76,000. The upside level held for the entire day only once, in the morning.
Post-by-post verification, all based on 1H closing prices:
Early-morning post: No hourly close reached above 81,199.9 all day—failed. The 03:00 close at 79,951.6 fell back below 80,000, and the 22:00 close at 78,279.8 broke below 78,690.8—both downside levels triggered.
Check-in post: The move above 81,600 never triggered—failed. The 20:00 close at 79,670.8 broke below 80,100—the pullback played out.
Morning post: Three closes from 09:00 to 11:00 held above 80,500—the band-break retest played out in the morning. The 12:00 close at 80,488.3 fell back below, invalidating it for the day. The 20:00 close fell below 80,000—the band floor gave way.
Recap post: The 10:00 close at 80,541.2 held above 80,500—the retest played out. The 20:00 close fell below 80,000, invalidating the retest.
Midday post: The 12:00 close at 80,488.3 fell back 11.7 dollars below 80,500, invalidating the retest. In the afternoon, only the 14:00 close moved back above; at 15:00 it fell back below. The 20:00 close fell below 80,000—the band floor gave way.
Evening post: The 20:00 and 21:00 closes both failed to move back above 80,500—the recovery failed. The 20:00 close fell below 80,000, and the 22:00 close at 78,279.8 broke below 79,302—the downside levels triggered.
Today’s focus: The 08:00 close at 76,295.2 did not reach 76,530, so an upside breakout did not trigger. A 10:00 close above 76,530 would signal a breakout, with 77,700 next in focus. A fall back below 76,000 would mean continued choppy trading; a break below 75,600 would add downside pressure, with 75,000–75,300 next in focus. All eight overnight closes held above 75,600. Today’s 16:00 options expiry and 21:30 nonfarm payrolls are still ahead.
Figure 1 is today’s learning card: Range-bound markets vs. trending markets—two different playbooks.
Simulated discussion; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerView
