The market took a hard hit overnight, BTC is still around $76,300 this morning — and there are two major events today that could determine the direction.
Overnight & this morning: BTC fell from around $80,390 to $75,533 in a single 4H candle, then briefly printed a new low of $75,169 in the early hours before bouncing slightly to around $76,270. ETH also dropped to around $2,244, SOL to around $90.30, and XRP to around $1.218. This isn’t a convincing bounce — more like catching your breath after a punch.
Levels I’m watching today:
• $BTC: above $76,977, then $79,000 (options expiry max pain); below $75,169, a break could open the door to a deeper drop
• $ETH: above $2,261, then $2,286; below $2,205
• $SOL: above $90.49, then $91.54; below $88.25
Today’s agenda: ~$2.65 billion in BTC options expire at 15:00 WIB (max pain at $79,000); US NFP + unemployment at 20:30 WIB; US consumer sentiment at 22:00 WIB; BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech at 23:00 WIB. Zcash’s NU7 upgrade activation is also expected around 09:30 WIB — not yet confirmed, so I’m keeping an eye on it.
My bias today: cautious, and I’m not chasing this bounce. This outlook is invalidated if there’s a 4H close above $76,977 — until that happens, I see this bounce as just a pause, not a reversal.
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
Which level do you think gets hit first today — $75,169 or $76,977?
#OutlookPagi #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH $SOL
Overnight & this morning: BTC fell from around $80,390 to $75,533 in a single 4H candle, then briefly printed a new low of $75,169 in the early hours before bouncing slightly to around $76,270. ETH also dropped to around $2,244, SOL to around $90.30, and XRP to around $1.218. This isn’t a convincing bounce — more like catching your breath after a punch.
Levels I’m watching today:
• $BTC: above $76,977, then $79,000 (options expiry max pain); below $75,169, a break could open the door to a deeper drop
• $ETH: above $2,261, then $2,286; below $2,205
• $SOL: above $90.49, then $91.54; below $88.25
Today’s agenda: ~$2.65 billion in BTC options expire at 15:00 WIB (max pain at $79,000); US NFP + unemployment at 20:30 WIB; US consumer sentiment at 22:00 WIB; BoJ Governor Ueda’s speech at 23:00 WIB. Zcash’s NU7 upgrade activation is also expected around 09:30 WIB — not yet confirmed, so I’m keeping an eye on it.
My bias today: cautious, and I’m not chasing this bounce. This outlook is invalidated if there’s a 4H close above $76,977 — until that happens, I see this bounce as just a pause, not a reversal.
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
Which level do you think gets hit first today — $75,169 or $76,977?
#OutlookPagi #Bitcoin $BTC $ETH $SOL