Market maker’s perspective: $BTC — all eight overnight hourly closes held above 75,600. First, watch the 08:00 candle this morning.
📊 08:40 snapshot: Price 76,265.5; 24h high 80,886.4 / low 75,143.5; approximately -5.38% over 24h.
Overnight recap:
Last night, the 21:00 candle closed at 79,656.9, below 80,000; the 22:00 candle closed at 78,279.8, below 79,302. Both levels were broken overnight. At 23:00, a sharp vacuum move dropped to 75,511, and the candle closed at 76,000.
After 00:00, all eight 1H candles closed above 75,600: 00:00 closed at 76,350; 01:00 at 75,904.1; 02:00 at 76,052.5; 03:00 at 76,322.1; 04:00 at 76,186.8; 05:00 at 75,815; 06:00 at 75,673.7; and 07:00 at 76,049.5. The lowest close, at 06:00, was just $73.7 above the 75,600 level. The 07:00 lower wick dipped to 75,143.5, but that was only a wick; the close didn’t count as a break.
08:00 in progress: Opened at 76,049.4, reached an intraday high of 76,319, and was at 76,265.5 when checked—above 76,000.
OI and funding:
OI is 34,762.6 coins, worth approximately $2.651 billion, down about 131.7 coins from the 07:43 check. No overnight position buildup—it’s been grinding, not chasing.
The current funding rate is 0.0032%/8h; the 08:00 settlement rate is 0.0028%/8h. It has cooled from the 00:00 peak of 0.01%, and long-side crowding is easing.
Taker sample: Over approximately 1.9 seconds, 100 trades showed 9 aggressive buys and 91 sells (for reference only; this is just a snapshot).
If I were the market maker:
Last night, that vacuum move plunged straight to 75,511, filling the dip-buy orders below and triggering long stop-losses around 80,000 above. Then the next eight hourly closes hugged 75,600 without rushing lower. If price is pushed down further from here, would that bring in cheaper coins or shorts to absorb the selling? There’s no rush to find out. What I care about more is whether the 08:00 candle can close above 76,530, the overnight high. If it can’t, price may keep grinding sideways during the day; we’ll see what happens tonight.
Today’s focus:
Nonfarm payrolls tonight at 20:30 + 6NOV options expiry (Max Pain 79,000). The day’s direction will be decided tonight.
Invalidation levels (based on 1H closes):
08:00 close above 76,530 confirms a breakout through the upper boundary; next watch 77,700.
08:00 close back below 76,000 means more grinding; next watch 75,600.
1H close below 75,600 confirms further downside; next watch 75,000–75,300.
1H close above 77,700 confirms a recovery; next watch 78,900–79,200.
For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
📊 08:40 snapshot: Price 76,265.5; 24h high 80,886.4 / low 75,143.5; approximately -5.38% over 24h.
Overnight recap:
Last night, the 21:00 candle closed at 79,656.9, below 80,000; the 22:00 candle closed at 78,279.8, below 79,302. Both levels were broken overnight. At 23:00, a sharp vacuum move dropped to 75,511, and the candle closed at 76,000.
After 00:00, all eight 1H candles closed above 75,600: 00:00 closed at 76,350; 01:00 at 75,904.1; 02:00 at 76,052.5; 03:00 at 76,322.1; 04:00 at 76,186.8; 05:00 at 75,815; 06:00 at 75,673.7; and 07:00 at 76,049.5. The lowest close, at 06:00, was just $73.7 above the 75,600 level. The 07:00 lower wick dipped to 75,143.5, but that was only a wick; the close didn’t count as a break.
08:00 in progress: Opened at 76,049.4, reached an intraday high of 76,319, and was at 76,265.5 when checked—above 76,000.
OI and funding:
OI is 34,762.6 coins, worth approximately $2.651 billion, down about 131.7 coins from the 07:43 check. No overnight position buildup—it’s been grinding, not chasing.
The current funding rate is 0.0032%/8h; the 08:00 settlement rate is 0.0028%/8h. It has cooled from the 00:00 peak of 0.01%, and long-side crowding is easing.
Taker sample: Over approximately 1.9 seconds, 100 trades showed 9 aggressive buys and 91 sells (for reference only; this is just a snapshot).
If I were the market maker:
Last night, that vacuum move plunged straight to 75,511, filling the dip-buy orders below and triggering long stop-losses around 80,000 above. Then the next eight hourly closes hugged 75,600 without rushing lower. If price is pushed down further from here, would that bring in cheaper coins or shorts to absorb the selling? There’s no rush to find out. What I care about more is whether the 08:00 candle can close above 76,530, the overnight high. If it can’t, price may keep grinding sideways during the day; we’ll see what happens tonight.
Today’s focus:
Nonfarm payrolls tonight at 20:30 + 6NOV options expiry (Max Pain 79,000). The day’s direction will be decided tonight.
Invalidation levels (based on 1H closes):
08:00 close above 76,530 confirms a breakout through the upper boundary; next watch 77,700.
08:00 close back below 76,000 means more grinding; next watch 75,600.
1H close below 75,600 confirms further downside; next watch 75,000–75,300.
1H close above 77,700 confirms a recovery; next watch 78,900–79,200.
For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
