Yesterday, I just said, “Don’t mistake a squeeze for a reversal,” and today the market drove the point home with a massive bearish candle.
On Wednesday night, election night, BTC squeezed from $75,600 to $81,000, liquidating $378 million in short positions in a single day. Then, when US stocks opened on Thursday, BTC plunged from above $80,800 to around $76,000. Its intraday low was $75,468—just $150 above its election-night low, wiping out a day’s gains. ETH fared even worse, falling below $2,300 to $2,245, down 7.7% on the day and hitting a two-month low.
This time, the sell-off wasn’t about the election—it was about the AI narrative itself. The Nasdaq fell as much as 3.9% on Thursday, retreating 10% from last month’s high and officially entering a technical correction. Qualcomm shares fell about 10% in premarket trading after its earnings report, while chip stocks led losses for a second straight day. After the Democrats swept both chambers, the market began applying a “regulatory discount” to data center construction. Whether AI capital spending can continue has become the market’s biggest question mark. BTC has followed AI tech stocks all year, and this time the big leader itself has gone weak at the knees.
Leverage remains the amplifier. In the hour BTC fell below $77,000, about $370 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the market. The 24-hour total was around $1.09 billion (Coinglass; 211,000 traders), with longs making up nearly 90%. Binance alone accounted for about 47%. The leveraged longs drawn in by Wednesday’s short squeeze became fuel for the sell-off just 24 hours later. Yesterday’s line, “Chasing the rally is just providing an exit for shorts,” came true in reverse today: the longs who chased the rally became the ones getting liquidated.
The macro backdrop offered no relief either. Initial US jobless claims last week came in at 189,000, near their lowest level since 1969. The labor market is too tight, leaving the Fed no reason to rush into rate cuts. Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the October nonfarm payrolls report is due, followed by CPI on November 10 and the Fed’s rate decision on December 9—three hurdles lined up in a row.
Three takeaways:
1. $75,000 is the last line of defense. This level has been tested repeatedly since August and held every time; it was also where the decline stopped on election night. If it fails, Wintermute sees $73,000 as the next stop, followed by $68,000.
2. Don’t talk about sentiment improving until BTC reclaims $80,000. BTC is now around $76,000, with the 50-day moving average at $78,777 and the 200-day moving average at $80,839 both overhead. The technical structure has turned bearish.
3. We’ll need the data to reveal the real direction. Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report and the November 10 CPI will determine whether the Fed cuts rates on December 9. Until then, chasing rallies or selling into declines is just feeding the liquidation engine.
Personal research; not investment advice.
#比特币 #以太坊 #爆仓 #NonfarmPayrolls
$BTC $ETH
On Wednesday night, election night, BTC squeezed from $75,600 to $81,000, liquidating $378 million in short positions in a single day. Then, when US stocks opened on Thursday, BTC plunged from above $80,800 to around $76,000. Its intraday low was $75,468—just $150 above its election-night low, wiping out a day’s gains. ETH fared even worse, falling below $2,300 to $2,245, down 7.7% on the day and hitting a two-month low.
This time, the sell-off wasn’t about the election—it was about the AI narrative itself. The Nasdaq fell as much as 3.9% on Thursday, retreating 10% from last month’s high and officially entering a technical correction. Qualcomm shares fell about 10% in premarket trading after its earnings report, while chip stocks led losses for a second straight day. After the Democrats swept both chambers, the market began applying a “regulatory discount” to data center construction. Whether AI capital spending can continue has become the market’s biggest question mark. BTC has followed AI tech stocks all year, and this time the big leader itself has gone weak at the knees.
Leverage remains the amplifier. In the hour BTC fell below $77,000, about $370 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across the market. The 24-hour total was around $1.09 billion (Coinglass; 211,000 traders), with longs making up nearly 90%. Binance alone accounted for about 47%. The leveraged longs drawn in by Wednesday’s short squeeze became fuel for the sell-off just 24 hours later. Yesterday’s line, “Chasing the rally is just providing an exit for shorts,” came true in reverse today: the longs who chased the rally became the ones getting liquidated.
The macro backdrop offered no relief either. Initial US jobless claims last week came in at 189,000, near their lowest level since 1969. The labor market is too tight, leaving the Fed no reason to rush into rate cuts. Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the October nonfarm payrolls report is due, followed by CPI on November 10 and the Fed’s rate decision on December 9—three hurdles lined up in a row.
Three takeaways:
1. $75,000 is the last line of defense. This level has been tested repeatedly since August and held every time; it was also where the decline stopped on election night. If it fails, Wintermute sees $73,000 as the next stop, followed by $68,000.
2. Don’t talk about sentiment improving until BTC reclaims $80,000. BTC is now around $76,000, with the 50-day moving average at $78,777 and the 200-day moving average at $80,839 both overhead. The technical structure has turned bearish.
3. We’ll need the data to reveal the real direction. Tonight’s nonfarm payrolls report and the November 10 CPI will determine whether the Fed cuts rates on December 9. Until then, chasing rallies or selling into declines is just feeding the liquidation engine.
Personal research; not investment advice.
#比特币 #以太坊 #爆仓 #NonfarmPayrolls
$BTC $ETH
