━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔁 Yesterday in Review
The ELSA short was triggered and then stopped out. After reaching a maximum unrealized profit of 13.67%, it reversed; it's now down 19.37% from when it was selected. The USELESS long was triggered and then stopped out, after reaching a maximum unrealized profit of 5.77%; it's now down 10.09%.
CAP, which was watch-only and not traded, is now up 9.29% from when it was selected, after gaining as much as 17.03% intraday. Over the past 30 days, 30 trades have closed: 13 reached Target 1 and 15 hit their stop-loss, for a 46% Target 1 rate.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 Today's Market
I'm bearish today. BTC is down 5.52% from the previous period, falling from 80,510 to 76,069. It's around 15% of the way through its 7-day range; over the past 24 hours, it's down 5.46%, with a low of 75,158.
The nearest resistance above is 76,533; if price breaks above it, watch 77,132. If it falls below 75,690, watch 75,158.
The share of long accounts rose from 58.3% a day ago to 74.8%, up 16.5 percentage points in one day. Large traders' long positions are 68.3%, the funding rate is 0.01%, and the 1-hour taker buy/sell ratio is 1.1. Retail traders are adding to longs even as prices fall, making the long side more crowded.
ETH is currently at 2,239, down 7.61% over 24 hours. Long accounts make up 79.2%, up 14.4 percentage points from a day ago. If price breaks above 2,269, watch 2,299; if it falls below 2,236, watch 2,225.
Only 16% of 76 altcoins are up, versus 78% last period; the median decline is 6.89%. With the broader market pulling back and longs crowded, prioritize placing a SOL short on a rebound. For BIRB, wait for a pullback before entering. Keep both positions small.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔴 Short SOL
Down 6.5% over 24 hours, with open interest down 9.0% over the same period, so the decline came with position unwinding. Open interest fell another 0.5% in the most recent hour. Trading volume is about $2.36 billion. Current price is 89.38, down 7.9% from the 24-hour high of 97.08. Trading volume over the past 3 hours is 80% of normal.
Selling in U.S. AI-related stocks has dragged crypto lower, with BTC falling below 76,000 (source: CoinDesk, November 5). SOL spot ETFs saw combined net outflows of about $71.6 million from October 26–30 (source: CoinCentral). Yesterday's low of 89.8 has been broken; a rebound to this area could turn it into resistance. Set the entry zone at 89.38–90.22.
Long accounts make up 77.5%, large traders' long positions are 72.5%, and the taker buy/sell ratio is 1.12. Longs are crowded, while the funding rate of 0.0016% is near neutral.
▸ Entry: 89.38 - 90.22
▸ Stop-loss: 91.62 (about +2.0%)
▸ Targets: 87.07 / 84.34
Shorts rank first in a falling market, with a stop-loss of just 2.0%. If a rebound comes with a surge in volume and price moves back above 90.4, skip this trade.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 Long BIRB
Up 6.2% over 24 hours, with open interest up 5.7% over the same period, roughly in line with the price gain. Open interest is still up 1.4% in the most recent hour. Trading volume is about $36 million. Current price is 0.08989, down 8.0% from the 24-hour high of 0.09767. Down 5.86% over 4 hours, with trading volume over the past 3 hours at 1.3 times normal.
No clear news from the past 48 hours was found; the move appears mainly driven by capital flows. The previous pullback found support around 0.08409. Place the entry zone at 0.083–0.08518.
The share of long accounts fell from 64.5% to 58.4% over the day. Large traders' long positions are 53.7%, and the taker buy/sell ratio is 0.98. Retail traders are reducing longs, and leverage is not heavily skewed in either direction.
▸ Entry: 0.083 - 0.08518
▸ Stop-loss: 0.07936 (about -5.6%)
▸ Targets: 0.09118 / 0.09827
When the broader market is bearish, only take longs on a pullback; this ranks second. If the price doesn't return below 0.08518 and instead surges straight back above 0.09681, skip this trade.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
👀 Watch only, no trade: ARIA
Up about 24% in 24 hours, with the price around 9% above its short-term average. The funding rate is 0.073%, meaning longs are paying a relatively high rate, and open interest is up 28.2% over 24 hours. Chasing the price carries high risk, so no trade.
━━━━━━━━━━━━
📌 Execution
Move the stop-loss to the entry price after Target 1 is reached. Wait for SOL to rebound to 89.38–90.22 and BIRB to pull back to 0.083–0.08518. Place conditional orders for both; don't chase the current price.
⚠️ Perpetual contracts are highly volatile. The above are screening results and conditional-order ideas, not investment advice.