Yesterday shorts got liquidated; today longs are getting wiped out—the $80,000 wick is taking out traders on both sides.
$BTC is currently around $76,130, down 5.4% today. It opened at $80,459 and slid all the way to an intraday low of $75,568, a seven-week low. The 50-week moving average at $75,733 was also breached intraday. $ETH fared even worse, at around $2,260, down 7%, after opening at $2,430 and falling to $2,236.
Over $1 billion in liquidations in 24 hours, mostly longs—the carnage is approaching the scale of the October 28–29 wipeout. Yesterday’s wick liquidated shorts; today’s bearish candle is liquidating dip-buying longs. Same $80,000 level: shorts got shaken out yesterday, longs today.
The first-principles explanation is simple: the money that drove prices up came from shorts being forced to cover; the reason prices are falling is that no spot buyers are stepping in. Leveraged traders are cutting each other down, while spot buyers and ETFs aren’t catching the falling knife, so price can only keep grinding traders down on both sides. Dip-buyers are the next batch of fuel.
My stance: still bearish; no dip-buying, no catching falling knives.
Invalidation: if BTC’s daily candle closes back above $80,000, I’ll admit I’m wrong and switch to a wait-and-see stance; a daily close below $75,718 would strengthen the bearish case.
Tomorrow at 4 p.m., $2.65 billion in BTC options expire, with max pain at $79,000 overhead; tonight brings the nonfarm payrolls report and the HYPE unlock. Are you willing to hold longs overnight?
Not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #爆仓 #Bitcoin
$BTC is currently around $76,130, down 5.4% today. It opened at $80,459 and slid all the way to an intraday low of $75,568, a seven-week low. The 50-week moving average at $75,733 was also breached intraday. $ETH fared even worse, at around $2,260, down 7%, after opening at $2,430 and falling to $2,236.
Over $1 billion in liquidations in 24 hours, mostly longs—the carnage is approaching the scale of the October 28–29 wipeout. Yesterday’s wick liquidated shorts; today’s bearish candle is liquidating dip-buying longs. Same $80,000 level: shorts got shaken out yesterday, longs today.
The first-principles explanation is simple: the money that drove prices up came from shorts being forced to cover; the reason prices are falling is that no spot buyers are stepping in. Leveraged traders are cutting each other down, while spot buyers and ETFs aren’t catching the falling knife, so price can only keep grinding traders down on both sides. Dip-buyers are the next batch of fuel.
My stance: still bearish; no dip-buying, no catching falling knives.
Invalidation: if BTC’s daily candle closes back above $80,000, I’ll admit I’m wrong and switch to a wait-and-see stance; a daily close below $75,718 would strengthen the bearish case.
Tomorrow at 4 p.m., $2.65 billion in BTC options expire, with max pain at $79,000 overhead; tonight brings the nonfarm payrolls report and the HYPE unlock. Are you willing to hold longs overnight?
Not investment advice.
$BTC $ETH
#BTC #爆仓 #Bitcoin