Market snapshot: BTC is currently at 76,766, down 4.73% over the past 24 hours. It plunged from 80,962 to 75,568, marking three consecutive daily losses, with short-term sentiment clearly weakening.

Technical outlook: The 1-hour RSI is just 19.7, deeply oversold—there could be a bounce at any moment after the sharp drop, but don’t mistake it for a reversal. The 1-hour MACD has formed a bearish cross, with the DIF showing significant divergence. The 4-hour and daily charts are both bearishly aligned, with MA20 and MA50 overhead, weighing on the price. The daily RSI is still at 35.83, not yet at an extreme. The lower Bollinger Band at 75,837 is just below; if 75,568 gives way, there could be more downside. Initial resistance on a rebound is at 77,318 (1-hour lower Bollinger Band) and 78,153 (4-hour MA20).

Funding: The 0.01% funding rate is fairly neutral, but the whale account long/short ratio is 2.70 and the open-interest long/short ratio is 2.06; retail traders are at 2.35. Longs are still crowded, and this sell-off hasn’t flushed them out at all. A rebound could easily become an exit window for longs, so don’t rush to buy the dip and catch a falling knife.

Today’s focus: The Fear & Greed Index is neutral at 50, and sentiment hasn’t reached panic levels, so the strength of any rebound is uncertain. The bias is bearish: consider a small short position on a rebound into the 77,300–78,000 range; if 75,568 breaks, follow the downside. Only talk about a recovery if price holds above 78,500.

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