That long upper wick at 21:00—many people see it as a sell-off, but I see $ON 's bulls adding to their positions.
First, that hour: the price surged to 0.2028, then got slammed down to 0.1708 on roughly 17.6 million U in volume—the biggest candle of the day. But what happened afterward matters more: notional open interest climbed steadily from about 8.75 million U at 14:00 to 12.15 million U at 21:00. It dipped to 10.9 million U during the sell-off, then quickly bounced back to around 11.5 million U by 23:00. If this were a real sell-off, positions should have kept unwinding.
Taker buying and selling also favor the bulls. From 15:00 to 22:00, taker buy volume exceeded sell volume every hour. On the high-volume candle at 18:00, the buy/sell ratio was close to 1.6. Large traders' long positions held steady at 64%–65%, while the percentage of retail accounts net long rose from 50% to around 55%—no one-sided chasing of the highs. The funding rate is still around 0.005%, so things aren't crowded at all.
Over 24 hours, the price rose nearly 30% from 0.1455 and is now consolidating around 0.187. I'm bullish: 0.1708 is the line to defend—the low of that wick. If it breaks, I'm out. Above, I'm watching 0.2028; if price breaks through on rising volume, these new positions opened tonight will be the fuel.
What do you think about that 21:00 candle—was it a shakeout, or was someone distributing at the highs? Share your reasoning.
#ON #合约持仓 #资金流向 #Altcoins
First, that hour: the price surged to 0.2028, then got slammed down to 0.1708 on roughly 17.6 million U in volume—the biggest candle of the day. But what happened afterward matters more: notional open interest climbed steadily from about 8.75 million U at 14:00 to 12.15 million U at 21:00. It dipped to 10.9 million U during the sell-off, then quickly bounced back to around 11.5 million U by 23:00. If this were a real sell-off, positions should have kept unwinding.
Taker buying and selling also favor the bulls. From 15:00 to 22:00, taker buy volume exceeded sell volume every hour. On the high-volume candle at 18:00, the buy/sell ratio was close to 1.6. Large traders' long positions held steady at 64%–65%, while the percentage of retail accounts net long rose from 50% to around 55%—no one-sided chasing of the highs. The funding rate is still around 0.005%, so things aren't crowded at all.
Over 24 hours, the price rose nearly 30% from 0.1455 and is now consolidating around 0.187. I'm bullish: 0.1708 is the line to defend—the low of that wick. If it breaks, I'm out. Above, I'm watching 0.2028; if price breaks through on rising volume, these new positions opened tonight will be the fuel.
What do you think about that 21:00 candle—was it a shakeout, or was someone distributing at the highs? Share your reasoning.
#ON #合约持仓 #资金流向 #Altcoins
