This drawdown is worse than the COVID crash.
That's the sentiment right now, and honestly, the speed and structure are different. COVID was a liquidity event — everything sold, VIX spiked to 80+, then Fed stepped in hard. This one? It's been a grind lower with no real bounce, no panic capitulation yet, just slow bleed.
$SPY and $QQQ have given up months of gains, and the pain is real. But here's the difference: COVID was an unknown external shock. This is a repricing of rates, valuations, and positioning. It's messier, longer, but it's not systemic collapse.
I'm watching for a real flush — sub-4000 on $SPX would do it — then we get a tradeable low. Until then, it's a bear market grind. Stay patient, don't force longs into this structure.
That's the sentiment right now, and honestly, the speed and structure are different. COVID was a liquidity event — everything sold, VIX spiked to 80+, then Fed stepped in hard. This one? It's been a grind lower with no real bounce, no panic capitulation yet, just slow bleed.
$SPY and $QQQ have given up months of gains, and the pain is real. But here's the difference: COVID was an unknown external shock. This is a repricing of rates, valuations, and positioning. It's messier, longer, but it's not systemic collapse.
I'm watching for a real flush — sub-4000 on $SPX would do it — then we get a tradeable low. Until then, it's a bear market grind. Stay patient, don't force longs into this structure.