Bitcoin over the next two months: Don’t get carried away—$80K is just “moving from the ICU to a regular ward”
Today, $BTC BTC climbed back above $80,000 on the back of the U.S. midterm elections being settled. It looks pretty impressive, but here’s the hard truth: this rebound came from “passive buying,” not “active buying.” Bitfinex and Wintermute are both pouring cold water on the rally—the buying in the $77,000–$80,000 range was mostly passive order fills, with spot-market buyers not stepping in. The ETF flows tell an even clearer story: there were $1.16 billion in net outflows over the previous three days, and Wednesday saw only a modest $74.6 million return. BlackRock’s IBIT is still seeing outflows.
Over the next two months, the main trend will most likely be choppy trading between $80,000 and $90,000. QCP Capital’s Q4 range is $80,000–$90,000, with $80,000–$82,000 considered an accumulation zone. The $84,000–$85,000 level has repeatedly capped price, while $75,000–$77,000 is the key support zone. If that breaks, the next level to watch is $74,000.
The real make-or-break moment is the FOMC meeting on December 8–9. The market is deeply divided over whether rates will be cut or raised in December, and November’s nonfarm payrolls and CPI data are what everyone is betting on. If the data comes in hot, rate-cut expectations could collapse, and BTC will most likely retest $75,000. If the data cools, BTC could get a chance to reach $90,000 or even higher.
In a nutshell: Don’t chase the rebound as if it’s a reversal. Above $80,000, it’s not cheap. Wait until the Fed shows its hand in December. #ADP美国10月私营就业增加8.6万人 #币安安全事件恢复进展：98%被盗资产已回填 #据报哈国政府投1亿美元加密基金
Today, $BTC BTC climbed back above $80,000 on the back of the U.S. midterm elections being settled. It looks pretty impressive, but here’s the hard truth: this rebound came from “passive buying,” not “active buying.” Bitfinex and Wintermute are both pouring cold water on the rally—the buying in the $77,000–$80,000 range was mostly passive order fills, with spot-market buyers not stepping in. The ETF flows tell an even clearer story: there were $1.16 billion in net outflows over the previous three days, and Wednesday saw only a modest $74.6 million return. BlackRock’s IBIT is still seeing outflows.
Over the next two months, the main trend will most likely be choppy trading between $80,000 and $90,000. QCP Capital’s Q4 range is $80,000–$90,000, with $80,000–$82,000 considered an accumulation zone. The $84,000–$85,000 level has repeatedly capped price, while $75,000–$77,000 is the key support zone. If that breaks, the next level to watch is $74,000.
The real make-or-break moment is the FOMC meeting on December 8–9. The market is deeply divided over whether rates will be cut or raised in December, and November’s nonfarm payrolls and CPI data are what everyone is betting on. If the data comes in hot, rate-cut expectations could collapse, and BTC will most likely retest $75,000. If the data cools, BTC could get a chance to reach $90,000 or even higher.
In a nutshell: Don’t chase the rebound as if it’s a reversal. Above $80,000, it’s not cheap. Wait until the Fed shows its hand in December. #ADP美国10月私营就业增加8.6万人 #币安安全事件恢复进展：98%被盗资产已回填 #据报哈国政府投1亿美元加密基金
