$XAU 11.5 Gold U.S. Session Outlook
Gold traded within a range during the European session today, without making a major one-way move, as expected. Prices moved back and forth between 4110 and 4140. In the short term, the 4110 level has provided solid support. Market sentiment is notably cautious, with everyone waiting for the nonfarm payrolls report. In this environment, it is not advisable to blindly chase prices higher; instead, look for opportunities around support below. The initial jobless claims data released this evening was somewhat bearish, and Hammack is also due to speak later tonight, but the impact on gold is likely to be limited—perhaps causing only a brief spike, with little chance of changing the current range-bound pattern. Tonight is not the main event; the key market focus is tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report. Be patient and wait for the opportunities the data may bring tomorrow.
Before the U.S. session tonight, gold pulled back to around 4110. I believe the key levels to watch now are 4100 and 4086, and whether they hold. Gold’s rally has suddenly stalled, which I believe may be due to several factors. On the one hand, the dollar weakened after the midterm elections, Treasury yields fell, and oil prices retreated, easing inflation concerns and driving gold’s sustained rebound. However, the market remains concerned about tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls data, and there is considerable uncertainty over whether interest rates will be raised in December. This suggests that although the factors that drove the earlier rally remain in place, some investors have chosen to take profits early and wait for fresh guidance from the data. Technically, on the one-hour chart, gold has repeatedly met resistance around 4140. A high-level MACD death cross suggests that short-term buying momentum is starting to weaken. However, prices are still above the moving averages, and the overall rebound structure remains intact. For now, this can be viewed as a correction following the rally, rather than a reversal into a downtrend. To confirm a reversal lower, we need to watch whether 4086 is decisively broken. Until that happens, we will continue to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks.
Thursday evening trading plan: Buy on a pullback to 4120–4110, targeting 4150.
Gold traded within a range during the European session today, without making a major one-way move, as expected. Prices moved back and forth between 4110 and 4140. In the short term, the 4110 level has provided solid support. Market sentiment is notably cautious, with everyone waiting for the nonfarm payrolls report. In this environment, it is not advisable to blindly chase prices higher; instead, look for opportunities around support below. The initial jobless claims data released this evening was somewhat bearish, and Hammack is also due to speak later tonight, but the impact on gold is likely to be limited—perhaps causing only a brief spike, with little chance of changing the current range-bound pattern. Tonight is not the main event; the key market focus is tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report. Be patient and wait for the opportunities the data may bring tomorrow.
Before the U.S. session tonight, gold pulled back to around 4110. I believe the key levels to watch now are 4100 and 4086, and whether they hold. Gold’s rally has suddenly stalled, which I believe may be due to several factors. On the one hand, the dollar weakened after the midterm elections, Treasury yields fell, and oil prices retreated, easing inflation concerns and driving gold’s sustained rebound. However, the market remains concerned about tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls data, and there is considerable uncertainty over whether interest rates will be raised in December. This suggests that although the factors that drove the earlier rally remain in place, some investors have chosen to take profits early and wait for fresh guidance from the data. Technically, on the one-hour chart, gold has repeatedly met resistance around 4140. A high-level MACD death cross suggests that short-term buying momentum is starting to weaken. However, prices are still above the moving averages, and the overall rebound structure remains intact. For now, this can be viewed as a correction following the rally, rather than a reversal into a downtrend. To confirm a reversal lower, we need to watch whether 4086 is decisively broken. Until that happens, we will continue to look for buying opportunities on pullbacks.
Thursday evening trading plan: Buy on a pullback to 4120–4110, targeting 4150.
