Bafang | BTC Evening Market Analysis 11.05
Data time: Beijing time 11.05 20:35
This afternoon, I asked whether U.S. stocks would first surge to 81,200 or test 80,000 after the open. The market answered before the opening bell.
📉 Early evening
From 16:00 to 19:00, $BTC kept grinding between 80,233 and 80,643, moving lower as it did
At 20:00, it plunged straight down to 79,888, losing both the daily EMA50 (now at 80,133) and the overnight low of 79,946
Current price: 79,892. Still up +2.05% over 24h, but down more than 600 points since 08:00
💰 Funds
At 19:00, aggressive sell orders in futures outnumbered buy orders by nearly 30%—selling pressure showed up first
The long/short ratio by number of accounts was 1.55 from 17:00 to 19:00, then fell to 1.51 at 20:00
Funding rate: 0.01%—not overheated, but not at panic levels either
📊 Indicator changes
The daily MACD histogram flipped from +24.6 this afternoon back to -43.5
Daily RSI is 48.5, back below 50; 4-hour RSI is 59.4, not yet oversold
🇺🇸 U.S. stock market correlation
Initial jobless claims are due at 21:30, U.S. markets open at 22:30, and nonfarm payrolls are due tomorrow night
Nasdaq futures fell around 0.6% during the European session, with chip stocks continuing to face selling. Last night, the Nasdaq lifted crypto; tonight, that relationship has reversed
$ETH 2,403 is also back below the daily EMA50 at 2,411, despite being up +3.63% over 24h. Its daily MACD histogram is still +29.9, so it’s holding up a little better than Bitcoin
🎯 Key levels
Resistance: 80,133 (daily EMA50) / 80,228 (Bollinger middle band) / 80,914 (today’s high)
Support: 79,888 (recent low) / 78,554 (200-day DCA cost basis) / 76,247 (Bollinger lower band)
Assessment: Short-term outlook is bearish, while the daily chart remains in a trading range. This morning I said that a drop back below 79,946 would put last night’s rally in doubt. That’s exactly where we are now.
Bafang’s view: This afternoon, I said to trim a little if 79,946 broke, and that rule still stands. Leave the rest untouched for now. If it can reclaim 80,133 after the U.S. market opens, we can treat this as a false breakdown. If it can’t, I’ll look again around 78,500. No catching falling knives.
After the U.S. market opens tonight, will BTC reclaim 80,133 or test 78,500?
(Personal opinion; not investment advice)
#BTC #行情分析 #U.S.Stocks
Data time: Beijing time 11.05 20:35
This afternoon, I asked whether U.S. stocks would first surge to 81,200 or test 80,000 after the open. The market answered before the opening bell.
📉 Early evening
From 16:00 to 19:00, $BTC kept grinding between 80,233 and 80,643, moving lower as it did
At 20:00, it plunged straight down to 79,888, losing both the daily EMA50 (now at 80,133) and the overnight low of 79,946
Current price: 79,892. Still up +2.05% over 24h, but down more than 600 points since 08:00
💰 Funds
At 19:00, aggressive sell orders in futures outnumbered buy orders by nearly 30%—selling pressure showed up first
The long/short ratio by number of accounts was 1.55 from 17:00 to 19:00, then fell to 1.51 at 20:00
Funding rate: 0.01%—not overheated, but not at panic levels either
📊 Indicator changes
The daily MACD histogram flipped from +24.6 this afternoon back to -43.5
Daily RSI is 48.5, back below 50; 4-hour RSI is 59.4, not yet oversold
🇺🇸 U.S. stock market correlation
Initial jobless claims are due at 21:30, U.S. markets open at 22:30, and nonfarm payrolls are due tomorrow night
Nasdaq futures fell around 0.6% during the European session, with chip stocks continuing to face selling. Last night, the Nasdaq lifted crypto; tonight, that relationship has reversed
$ETH 2,403 is also back below the daily EMA50 at 2,411, despite being up +3.63% over 24h. Its daily MACD histogram is still +29.9, so it’s holding up a little better than Bitcoin
🎯 Key levels
Resistance: 80,133 (daily EMA50) / 80,228 (Bollinger middle band) / 80,914 (today’s high)
Support: 79,888 (recent low) / 78,554 (200-day DCA cost basis) / 76,247 (Bollinger lower band)
Assessment: Short-term outlook is bearish, while the daily chart remains in a trading range. This morning I said that a drop back below 79,946 would put last night’s rally in doubt. That’s exactly where we are now.
Bafang’s view: This afternoon, I said to trim a little if 79,946 broke, and that rule still stands. Leave the rest untouched for now. If it can reclaim 80,133 after the U.S. market opens, we can treat this as a false breakdown. If it can’t, I’ll look again around 78,500. No catching falling knives.
After the U.S. market opens tonight, will BTC reclaim 80,133 or test 78,500?
(Personal opinion; not investment advice)
#BTC #行情分析 #U.S.Stocks