Milan are considered clear favorites (74% chance of winning), but this match is a classic trap. The Rossoneri made a poor start in the Europa League, while Ferencváros come into the game with a perfect winning record and incredible motivation. The outcome here depends less on the teams’ quality than on how seriously Milan take the competition after their derby win.
📊 Why Milan are the favourites
· Quality and motivation: Despite picking up just three points in three rounds (24th place), Milan cannot afford to slip up. They are playing at home, and their 3–1 derby win over Inter restored their confidence.
· The “San Siro” factor: Milan have scored exactly three goals in each of their last three home wins. In their last four games at San Siro, they opened the scoring within the first 25 minutes.
⚠️ Key risks and weaknesses
· Injury crisis: Tomori, Gabbia, Chukwueze, Saelemaekers and Loftus-Cheek are injured. First-choice goalkeeper Maignan is suspended, and 20-year-old Torriani will replace him. Pavlović will also miss out due to fatigue.
· Ferencváros’ perfect start: The visitors have won all three of their Europa League matches (beating Celtic, Viktoria and Torrinse), scoring 9 goals. They are in excellent form and are not afraid to take the initiative.
· Milan’s defence: The Rossoneri have conceded in 4 of their last 5 home matches, and have kept just one clean sheet during that spell.
💡 Prediction
The most likely scenario is an entertaining game with both teams scoring. Milan will attack in numbers, but Ferencváros have already shown they know how to punish defensive mistakes. Both teams to score (around 1.85 odds) looks like a very logical bet.
As for the result, a Milan win (for example, 2–1) is the most likely outcome, but given all the hosts’ problems, a draw or even a surprise win for the Hungarians would not be a major shock.