Crypto is rallying 5% today — even as the market grows more convinced that the Fed will RAISE interest rates in December.
The facts: CME FedWatch puts the odds of at least a 25 bps Fed rate hike in December at around 80% (Reuters, Nov. 5), up from 77.4% in the previous session. FXStreet reported the same figure this afternoon, at around 79%. Meanwhile, the dollar has weakened to a one-month low, while Treasury yields and oil prices have fallen following the U.S. midterm elections. BTC is around $80,280 and ETH around $2,418 this afternoon.
My take: this is a paradoxical rally. The market isn’t celebrating monetary easing — it’s celebrating the uncertainty of the election fading, even as Fed expectations grow more hawkish. That means this rally is built on sentiment, not policy support. If U.S. labor data comes in strong, the odds of a rate hike could climb further — and that’s when this rally will really be tested.
What I’m watching: U.S. jobless claims tonight at 20:30 WIB, the Bank of England decision at 19:00 WIB, and NFP tomorrow at 20:30 WIB — three data points that could move those odds in either direction.
Do you think this rally will last through December, or will the odds of a rate hike break it?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#TheFed #Makro $BTC
The facts: CME FedWatch puts the odds of at least a 25 bps Fed rate hike in December at around 80% (Reuters, Nov. 5), up from 77.4% in the previous session. FXStreet reported the same figure this afternoon, at around 79%. Meanwhile, the dollar has weakened to a one-month low, while Treasury yields and oil prices have fallen following the U.S. midterm elections. BTC is around $80,280 and ETH around $2,418 this afternoon.
My take: this is a paradoxical rally. The market isn’t celebrating monetary easing — it’s celebrating the uncertainty of the election fading, even as Fed expectations grow more hawkish. That means this rally is built on sentiment, not policy support. If U.S. labor data comes in strong, the odds of a rate hike could climb further — and that’s when this rally will really be tested.
What I’m watching: U.S. jobless claims tonight at 20:30 WIB, the Bank of England decision at 19:00 WIB, and NFP tomorrow at 20:30 WIB — three data points that could move those odds in either direction.
Do you think this rally will last through December, or will the odds of a rate hike break it?
This is my analysis, not financial advice — always DYOR.
#TheFed #Makro $BTC