【$ELSA surged to 0.1219, then plunged back to 0.093: Where did the extra 60% of open interest go?】
#热门币 #合约数据 #PriceVolumeRelationship
Three coins on today’s top gainers list have completely different structures. ELSA is the one most worth discussing, because it has just played out a complete “surge—distribution” cycle.
$ELSA is now at 0.09332, up 28.20% in 24 hours, with a high of 0.1219 and a low of 0.07221. Its trading volume is 296 million, the highest among today’s trending coins.
First, let’s look at the candlesticks. On the 1-hour chart, the candle at 08:00 on November 5 opened at 0.09814, surged to a high of 0.121, closed at 0.1184, and had a trading volume of 306 million. The 09:00 candle opened at 0.11837, reached a high of 0.1219, plunged straight down to a low of 0.09412, and closed at 0.09674, with a trading volume of 377 million. The 10:00 candle then closed at 0.09317. One candle with a long upper wick after a 24% surge, followed by another that wiped out the entire gain. The 1-hour MA20 is 0.096186 and the MA50 is 0.07878; price is now below the MA20.
The derivatives data is the key. Open interest in contracts rose from 62.415 million to 103.6 million over 24 hours, up 65.99%. In dollar terms, it rose from 4.6 million to 10.02 million, up 117.72%.
The price rose 28.20%, while open interest in contracts rose 65.99%—far more than the price. This indicates that new leverage was piling in as the price climbed, rather than this being simply a short squeeze. Both longs and shorts added positions, which is why the volatility was so high.
But the figures after the peak are even more interesting. Open interest reached 111.8 million contracts on the 09:00 candle and has now fallen back to 103.6 million, down 7.36%. Dollar-denominated open interest fell from 13.24 million to 10.02 million, down 24.32%. The decline in dollar terms is more than three times the drop in contract count.
Put these three figures together: price up 28%, open interest up 66%, followed by a 24% drop in dollar-denominated open interest at the highs. Some of the longs that rushed in during the spike were flushed out around 0.12.
The funding rate tells the same story. It was still at the baseline of 0.00500% at 04:00 on November 4, then climbed steadily to a peak of 0.07249% at 00:00 on November 5. The most recent settlement was 0.05218%, while the current estimate for the next settlement has already fallen to 0.01109%. Longs are paying funding much less rapidly now.
As for positioning, ELSA’s top-trader long/short position ratio is 1.2003, with longs at 54.55%; the top-trader account ratio is 1.0133, with longs at 50.33%; and the market-wide ratio is 1.0868, with longs at 52.08%. The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.9558, giving sellers a slight edge. All three ratios are clustered around 1, with no extreme one-sided positioning. Positions are actually fairly dispersed.
The contrast with the other two trending coins today is even clearer. FLUID is up 22.72%, with open interest in contracts up 60.46% and dollar-denominated open interest up 96.84%. Its 1-hour chart has climbed in stages without a pullback, and its funding rate has returned to the 0.00500% baseline, making it the cleanest structure of the three. CAP is up 31.20%, with open interest in contracts up only 22.51% but dollar-denominated open interest up 62.01%. Most of its gain comes from the coin’s price itself, but its funding rate is still at 0.06271%, so long-position costs have not come down.
Key levels:
ELSA support: 0.09103 (1-hour low) / 0.07878 (1-hour MA50) / 0.074421 (4-hour MA20); resistance: 0.1006 (1-hour high) / 0.10793 (4-hour high) / 0.1219 (24-hour high)
My approach: The 4-hour MA20 at 0.074421 is the make-or-break level for this move. A break below it would mean this rally has failed. Conversely, it would only count as a cleanout followed by a fresh move higher if the funding rate falls below 0.02% and price gets back above 0.1006. There’s overhead supply above at this level, and freshly liquidated leverage below. I’m staying out.
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These are my own market notes and do not constitute investment advice. Data from Binance futures, November 5, 2026, at 8 a.m.
#热门币 #合约数据 #PriceVolumeRelationship
Three coins on today’s top gainers list have completely different structures. ELSA is the one most worth discussing, because it has just played out a complete “surge—distribution” cycle.
$ELSA is now at 0.09332, up 28.20% in 24 hours, with a high of 0.1219 and a low of 0.07221. Its trading volume is 296 million, the highest among today’s trending coins.
First, let’s look at the candlesticks. On the 1-hour chart, the candle at 08:00 on November 5 opened at 0.09814, surged to a high of 0.121, closed at 0.1184, and had a trading volume of 306 million. The 09:00 candle opened at 0.11837, reached a high of 0.1219, plunged straight down to a low of 0.09412, and closed at 0.09674, with a trading volume of 377 million. The 10:00 candle then closed at 0.09317. One candle with a long upper wick after a 24% surge, followed by another that wiped out the entire gain. The 1-hour MA20 is 0.096186 and the MA50 is 0.07878; price is now below the MA20.
The derivatives data is the key. Open interest in contracts rose from 62.415 million to 103.6 million over 24 hours, up 65.99%. In dollar terms, it rose from 4.6 million to 10.02 million, up 117.72%.
The price rose 28.20%, while open interest in contracts rose 65.99%—far more than the price. This indicates that new leverage was piling in as the price climbed, rather than this being simply a short squeeze. Both longs and shorts added positions, which is why the volatility was so high.
But the figures after the peak are even more interesting. Open interest reached 111.8 million contracts on the 09:00 candle and has now fallen back to 103.6 million, down 7.36%. Dollar-denominated open interest fell from 13.24 million to 10.02 million, down 24.32%. The decline in dollar terms is more than three times the drop in contract count.
Put these three figures together: price up 28%, open interest up 66%, followed by a 24% drop in dollar-denominated open interest at the highs. Some of the longs that rushed in during the spike were flushed out around 0.12.
The funding rate tells the same story. It was still at the baseline of 0.00500% at 04:00 on November 4, then climbed steadily to a peak of 0.07249% at 00:00 on November 5. The most recent settlement was 0.05218%, while the current estimate for the next settlement has already fallen to 0.01109%. Longs are paying funding much less rapidly now.
As for positioning, ELSA’s top-trader long/short position ratio is 1.2003, with longs at 54.55%; the top-trader account ratio is 1.0133, with longs at 50.33%; and the market-wide ratio is 1.0868, with longs at 52.08%. The taker buy/sell ratio is 0.9558, giving sellers a slight edge. All three ratios are clustered around 1, with no extreme one-sided positioning. Positions are actually fairly dispersed.
The contrast with the other two trending coins today is even clearer. FLUID is up 22.72%, with open interest in contracts up 60.46% and dollar-denominated open interest up 96.84%. Its 1-hour chart has climbed in stages without a pullback, and its funding rate has returned to the 0.00500% baseline, making it the cleanest structure of the three. CAP is up 31.20%, with open interest in contracts up only 22.51% but dollar-denominated open interest up 62.01%. Most of its gain comes from the coin’s price itself, but its funding rate is still at 0.06271%, so long-position costs have not come down.
Key levels:
ELSA support: 0.09103 (1-hour low) / 0.07878 (1-hour MA50) / 0.074421 (4-hour MA20); resistance: 0.1006 (1-hour high) / 0.10793 (4-hour high) / 0.1219 (24-hour high)
My approach: The 4-hour MA20 at 0.074421 is the make-or-break level for this move. A break below it would mean this rally has failed. Conversely, it would only count as a cleanout followed by a fresh move higher if the funding rate falls below 0.02% and price gets back above 0.1006. There’s overhead supply above at this level, and freshly liquidated leverage below. I’m staying out.
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These are my own market notes and do not constitute investment advice. Data from Binance futures, November 5, 2026, at 8 a.m.