Mi-ge takes a look at the latest signal from U.S. Treasuries: the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.845%, down more than four basis points on the day and its lowest level since early September. Two forces are driving the move: a sharp drop in oil prices is lowering inflation expectations, and after the midterm elections, markets think fiscal expansion may be constrained, reducing pressure from long-term Treasury supply. Money is flowing into Treasuries, pushing prices up and yields down. For crypto, the signal is undeniably positive: Bitcoin climbed above $80,000, and ETH rose nearly 4%. A weaker dollar and falling yields have certainly eased some of the valuation pressure on risk assets. But Mi-ge has one reminder: what’s falling is inflation expectations, not the policy rate. In fact, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December has risen to 81.5%. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is still pending, and a change in the data could send yields bouncing back at any time. Let’s see what the jobs report says before talking about liquidity tailwinds.#美国10年期国债收益率跌至4.845%