#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？ Yesterday I said the market was in defense mode only—then the Dow rose 3%
On the morning of 11/4, I said, “The market has no expectations, only defense,” because S&P futures were down 1%, the Nasdaq was down 2%, and the VIX had broken 20. The Dow closed up 3.03%, and BTC topped 80,000. I was wrong.
📊 Key data
· Dow +3.03% (best month of 2025 so far), S&P 500 +1.58%, Nasdaq +1.44%
· WTI -8.29% to 88.12, Brent -8.67% to 94.62
· Gold +3.4%, silver +5.02%, 10-year Treasury yield at 4.888%
· Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon rose 5%–6.7%; Nvidia and Tesla fell more than 3%
· Democrats projected to win 51–53 Senate seats; all figures are media estimates and not yet certified
· BTC 80558 (+2.73%), ETH 2424.51 (+4.32%)
🔍 Key contradictions
Mistake 1: I used an opening snapshot to define the whole day. The sell-off was limited to the early part of election night; futures had already turned higher around 23:30, and the move was called a “bear trap.” You need to wait for the close before writing a reaction.
Mistake 2: I only counted “a sweep = bearish,” missing that a deadlock could be bullish—and, more importantly, that Iran de-escalation → oil prices plunging 8.29% → less pressure for rate hikes. I didn’t mention oil prices at all.
Mistake 3: I poured cold water on the idea that “markets rise after midterms” by calling it a statistical pattern, but BTC then rose 4.36% over the next 24 hours. Still, $533 million in short liquidations and a 4.36% drop in open interest point to short covering—wrong on direction, right on structure.
🧊 Three reality checks
1. The results aren’t final. The 51–53 seats are media estimates; state certifications will come between mid-to-late November and December.
2. Oil prices fully priced in “war de-escalation,” but Trump said he would decide when the war ends, and Iran also poured cold water on the prospect.
3. Don’t mistake +3.03% for a trend. The fading of the premium is a one-off repricing, and open interest fell 4.36% during that BTC rally.
💡 My take
The market is waiting on four things: the 11/6 jobs report (65,000 / 4.2%), 11/10 CPI (rate-hike pricing at 76%–81.5%), the Iran conflict, and the veto-power deadlock.
ADP October employment rose by 86,000, beating expectations (September was revised down to 86,000), but on 11/4, the dollar and gold moved only modestly—the election narrative diluted the employment data. The jobs report needs to confirm whether the rebound is a trend or just noise.
No change to my plan: no leverage ahead of the jobs report or CPI. In a vacuum, it’s easiest to mistake a big green candle for a trend. When prediction markets say 99%, what’s most needed is someone willing to say what could go wrong.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Results have not yet been officially certified, and probabilities and forecasts may change.
Follow @Sue's Crypto Diary · Using data to expose fake signals in crypto
#USMidtermElections #JobsReport #FederalReserve #Bitcoin #OilPrices
On the morning of 11/4, I said, “The market has no expectations, only defense,” because S&P futures were down 1%, the Nasdaq was down 2%, and the VIX had broken 20. The Dow closed up 3.03%, and BTC topped 80,000. I was wrong.
📊 Key data
· Dow +3.03% (best month of 2025 so far), S&P 500 +1.58%, Nasdaq +1.44%
· WTI -8.29% to 88.12, Brent -8.67% to 94.62
· Gold +3.4%, silver +5.02%, 10-year Treasury yield at 4.888%
· Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon rose 5%–6.7%; Nvidia and Tesla fell more than 3%
· Democrats projected to win 51–53 Senate seats; all figures are media estimates and not yet certified
· BTC 80558 (+2.73%), ETH 2424.51 (+4.32%)
🔍 Key contradictions
Mistake 1: I used an opening snapshot to define the whole day. The sell-off was limited to the early part of election night; futures had already turned higher around 23:30, and the move was called a “bear trap.” You need to wait for the close before writing a reaction.
Mistake 2: I only counted “a sweep = bearish,” missing that a deadlock could be bullish—and, more importantly, that Iran de-escalation → oil prices plunging 8.29% → less pressure for rate hikes. I didn’t mention oil prices at all.
Mistake 3: I poured cold water on the idea that “markets rise after midterms” by calling it a statistical pattern, but BTC then rose 4.36% over the next 24 hours. Still, $533 million in short liquidations and a 4.36% drop in open interest point to short covering—wrong on direction, right on structure.
🧊 Three reality checks
1. The results aren’t final. The 51–53 seats are media estimates; state certifications will come between mid-to-late November and December.
2. Oil prices fully priced in “war de-escalation,” but Trump said he would decide when the war ends, and Iran also poured cold water on the prospect.
3. Don’t mistake +3.03% for a trend. The fading of the premium is a one-off repricing, and open interest fell 4.36% during that BTC rally.
💡 My take
The market is waiting on four things: the 11/6 jobs report (65,000 / 4.2%), 11/10 CPI (rate-hike pricing at 76%–81.5%), the Iran conflict, and the veto-power deadlock.
ADP October employment rose by 86,000, beating expectations (September was revised down to 86,000), but on 11/4, the dollar and gold moved only modestly—the election narrative diluted the employment data. The jobs report needs to confirm whether the rebound is a trend or just noise.
No change to my plan: no leverage ahead of the jobs report or CPI. In a vacuum, it’s easiest to mistake a big green candle for a trend. When prediction markets say 99%, what’s most needed is someone willing to say what could go wrong.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Results have not yet been officially certified, and probabilities and forecasts may change.
Follow @Sue's Crypto Diary · Using data to expose fake signals in crypto
#USMidtermElections #JobsReport #FederalReserve #Bitcoin #OilPrices
