$XAU 11.5 Gold European Session Outlook
Bulls mounted a fierce offensive throughout the Asian session. Gold opened at 4063 today and moved higher with the trend, surging by 100 points during the session. For several days, I have consistently maintained a bullish outlook and repeatedly highlighted key support and resistance levels. Those who followed the trend have comfortably reaped the gains from this rally. However, markets do not rise without corrections. After a strong rally in the first half of the Asian session, prices have begun to show signs of a slight pullback. The bullish trend has not reversed, but the risk of a retreat from elevated levels is gradually building. The hotter the market gets, the more important it is to stay calm. The risk of blindly chasing prices higher has risen sharply, making it a poor-value trade at this stage. Emotional herd-following at highs is one of the biggest trading mistakes. It is better to miss the final leg of a rally than to take a large position betting against a pullback from the highs. Steady, disciplined trading is the key to lasting success in the market.
The faster gold rallies, the more alert we need to be to the risk of a short-term pullback. Identifying the bullish direction is not particularly difficult; the real test is having the patience to wait for a suitable entry price. At this point, I would rather wait for a technical correction before looking for opportunities. On the indicators, the 4-hour MACD has crossed above the zero line, and the red histogram bars continue to expand, showing that the underlying momentum behind this rally remains strong. At the same time, the RSI is approaching overbought territory. It is important to distinguish between the two: the broader bullish trend remains strong, but the risk of chasing prices higher in the short term is accumulating, making fresh positions at elevated levels poor value. Keep a close eye on support at 4113 and 4086. Wait for prices to pull back into these zones, look for signs of stabilization, and then consider entering long in the direction of the trend. This approach offers more room for error.
Thursday afternoon trading plan: Buy on a pullback to 4110–4090, target 4180, stop-loss 4080.
Bulls mounted a fierce offensive throughout the Asian session. Gold opened at 4063 today and moved higher with the trend, surging by 100 points during the session. For several days, I have consistently maintained a bullish outlook and repeatedly highlighted key support and resistance levels. Those who followed the trend have comfortably reaped the gains from this rally. However, markets do not rise without corrections. After a strong rally in the first half of the Asian session, prices have begun to show signs of a slight pullback. The bullish trend has not reversed, but the risk of a retreat from elevated levels is gradually building. The hotter the market gets, the more important it is to stay calm. The risk of blindly chasing prices higher has risen sharply, making it a poor-value trade at this stage. Emotional herd-following at highs is one of the biggest trading mistakes. It is better to miss the final leg of a rally than to take a large position betting against a pullback from the highs. Steady, disciplined trading is the key to lasting success in the market.
The faster gold rallies, the more alert we need to be to the risk of a short-term pullback. Identifying the bullish direction is not particularly difficult; the real test is having the patience to wait for a suitable entry price. At this point, I would rather wait for a technical correction before looking for opportunities. On the indicators, the 4-hour MACD has crossed above the zero line, and the red histogram bars continue to expand, showing that the underlying momentum behind this rally remains strong. At the same time, the RSI is approaching overbought territory. It is important to distinguish between the two: the broader bullish trend remains strong, but the risk of chasing prices higher in the short term is accumulating, making fresh positions at elevated levels poor value. Keep a close eye on support at 4113 and 4086. Wait for prices to pull back into these zones, look for signs of stabilization, and then consider entering long in the direction of the trend. This approach offers more room for error.
Thursday afternoon trading plan: Buy on a pullback to 4110–4090, target 4180, stop-loss 4080.
