On November 5, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell to 4.845% intraday, its lowest level in nearly two months. Trading Economics reported it at around 4.85%, while the precise market quote tracked by domestic media such as CLS was 4.845%. The figures are consistent, so this is real.
Why did it fall so quickly? The immediate reason was the midterm elections. The Democrats won both chambers, resolving a major source of political uncertainty, and funds flowed straight into bonds and stocks. In addition, the election results eased tensions in the Middle East, sending oil prices sharply lower. That slightly eased inflation concerns and put further downward pressure on yields. Yields had already fallen by nearly 10 basis points on Wednesday, and Thursday’s move was a continuation.
One thing to be clear about, though: falling yields don’t mean the market is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates. The probability of a rate hike in December is still priced at around 79%. At its core, this decline reflects the removal of a political risk premium, not a shift in monetary policy expectations.
Next up is Friday’s jobs report. ADP data previously showed that private-sector employment remained resilient. If nonfarm payrolls don’t show a clear slowdown, there may not be much room for Treasury yields to fall further. In the short term, this decline looks more like an event-driven correction. Whether it continues will depend on how the jobs data turn out.
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$BTC #中期选举 #美国10年期国债收益率跌至4.845%
This is an objective summary of publicly available information and mechanisms only, and does not constitute investment advice.
$BNB $ZEC
Why did it fall so quickly? The immediate reason was the midterm elections. The Democrats won both chambers, resolving a major source of political uncertainty, and funds flowed straight into bonds and stocks. In addition, the election results eased tensions in the Middle East, sending oil prices sharply lower. That slightly eased inflation concerns and put further downward pressure on yields. Yields had already fallen by nearly 10 basis points on Wednesday, and Thursday’s move was a continuation.
One thing to be clear about, though: falling yields don’t mean the market is betting that the Fed will cut interest rates. The probability of a rate hike in December is still priced at around 79%. At its core, this decline reflects the removal of a political risk premium, not a shift in monetary policy expectations.
Next up is Friday’s jobs report. ADP data previously showed that private-sector employment remained resilient. If nonfarm payrolls don’t show a clear slowdown, there may not be much room for Treasury yields to fall further. In the short term, this decline looks more like an event-driven correction. Whether it continues will depend on how the jobs data turn out.
If you’d like to keep following macroeconomic developments like this, follow me.
$BTC #中期选举 #美国10年期国债收益率跌至4.845%
This is an objective summary of publicly available information and mechanisms only, and does not constitute investment advice.
$BNB $ZEC