The broader market is rising, while $TRUMP is getting dumped. This is where the real tension in the midterms lies.
After the Democrats won both chambers of Congress, Binance’s TRUMP perpetual fell from around 1.51 to near 1.25, down about 17% in 24 hours, with 320 million U in volume. Over the same period, $BTC rose about 4%, and $ETH rose about 6%. Crypto risk appetite hasn’t disappeared; the Trump-aligned narrative is being discounted on its own.
The derivatives data is even more telling: open interest in tokens rose from about 24.3 million to around 30.9 million in 24 hours—a 27% increase. Positions kept piling up even as the price fell. The top-trader long/short ratio dropped from 2.06 to 1.49. Longs are cutting back, but they haven’t fully cleared out.
I’m bearish. Congress doesn’t formally turn over until January next year, and the discount tied to its investigative powers won’t be fully priced in with just one down candle. What would change my mind? A high-volume close back above 1.40, alongside a drop in open interest—that would show the shorts have finished taking profit in this move.
#中期选举
After the Democrats won both chambers of Congress, Binance’s TRUMP perpetual fell from around 1.51 to near 1.25, down about 17% in 24 hours, with 320 million U in volume. Over the same period, $BTC rose about 4%, and $ETH rose about 6%. Crypto risk appetite hasn’t disappeared; the Trump-aligned narrative is being discounted on its own.
The derivatives data is even more telling: open interest in tokens rose from about 24.3 million to around 30.9 million in 24 hours—a 27% increase. Positions kept piling up even as the price fell. The top-trader long/short ratio dropped from 2.06 to 1.49. Longs are cutting back, but they haven’t fully cleared out.
I’m bearish. Congress doesn’t formally turn over until January next year, and the discount tied to its investigative powers won’t be fully priced in with just one down candle. What would change my mind? A high-volume close back above 1.40, alongside a drop in open interest—that would show the shorts have finished taking profit in this move.
#中期选举
