On November 3, the World Gold Council released its gold demand report for the third quarter of 2026. Central banks and other official institutions made net purchases of 321 tonnes, while holdings in physically backed gold ETFs grew by about 211 tonnes. Yet global demand for gold bars and coins fell 19% year on year. In the same quarter, why did some channels see increased buying while demand in others declined?

First, make sure we’re comparing like with like. The figures of 321 tonnes and 211 tonnes are net purchases by the official sector and ETFs, respectively, in the third quarter, while 19% is the year-on-year decline in demand for gold bars and coins. On a year-on-year basis, net purchases by the official sector rose 42%, ETFs’ net inflows for the quarter fell 6%, and demand for gold bars and coins declined 19%.

【The official sector bought 321 tonnes, about 120 tonnes of which has been publicly reported】

321 tonnes is net purchases by central banks and other official institutions, after subtracting sales. Based on disclosures through October 30, reported net purchases at the country level were about 120 tonnes; the remaining roughly 63% was included based on World Gold Council estimates of unreported activity. Quarterly data may be revised as further disclosures come in. Current public information supports country attribution only for the disclosed portion.

The World Gold Council views reserve diversification and risk management as the main drivers of official-sector purchases. For the official sector, adding gold is one way to adjust the overall reserve portfolio. This decision is made at the reserve-management level, with considerations that differ from those of retail buyers choosing between assets. As a result, the two types of demand can move in opposite directions in the same quarter.

【Gold ETFs turned from net outflows to net inflows, but purchases were lower than a year earlier】

Global holdings in physically backed gold ETFs declined on a net basis in the second quarter, then rose by about 211 tonnes in the third quarter. For comparison, holdings rose by about 226 tonnes on a net basis in the third quarter of 2025, making this year's increase 6% smaller. These two comparisons answer separate questions: whether flows turned positive, and how large this round of inflows was.

At the end of the third quarter, these ETFs held a combined 4,256 tonnes of gold worldwide. The 4,256 tonnes is the end-of-quarter stock; 211 tonnes is the net change during the quarter. Funds hold gold, while investors hold fund shares. The tonnage in the report shows how much funds added. To distinguish the contributions of institutions and individuals, investor-composition data would also be needed.

【Global bar and coin purchases fell, while purchases in mainland China rose】

Global demand for bars and coins in the third quarter was 267.8 tonnes, down 19% year on year. By region, demand in mainland China was 78.9 tonnes, up 7%, while demand in India was 55 tonnes, down 40%. A rough calculation based on the reported tonnages and growth rates suggests that mainland China bought about 5 tonnes more than in the same quarter last year, while India bought about 37 tonnes less. The two markets moved in opposite directions and by different amounts; the global total reflects the combined result of these regional changes.

The World Gold Council links the slowdown in physical investment to gold prices moving within a range, interest rate expectations, and stock market performance. This is the report's explanation for the overall change; the available data do not break down how much each factor contributed in mainland China and India. Gold jewellery is reported separately, and the 19% decline refers to physical investment demand in the form of bars and coins.

【Global demand edged down in tonnage—why did its value rise?】

Including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, global gold demand in the third quarter was about 1,369 tonnes, down 1% year on year, while its value in US dollars reached $188 billion, up 22%. Tonnage measures the weight of demand, while its value is also affected by price levels, so a slight decline in weight can coincide with an increase in value. The 22% figure refers to the year-on-year change in the value of total demand; gold price gains must be measured separately using a price series.

Two figures are worth tracking next quarter. First, the net change in gold ETF holdings, to see whether the net increase continues after turning positive in the third quarter. Second, the year-on-year growth rates for bar and coin demand in mainland China and India, to see whether the divergence between the two markets persists. The first will test whether inflows through the fund channel are sustainable; the second will help show which markets are driving changes in global physical retail demand.

For research and educational purposes only. This is not investment advice.