Qualcomm and ARM both reported last night. I wasn’t watching the numbers—I was watching two statements.
One came from Qualcomm: prices are rising across the entire product lineup due to higher semiconductor input costs, but it won’t fully benefit from those price increases until the second half of fiscal 2027. The AI tax takes more than six months to flow from upstream to the income statement, with chipmakers caught in the middle—when upstream prices rise, they have to follow; downstream, they can’t raise prices too aggressively. Even the pick-and-shovel sellers have to pay the AI tax.
The other came from ARM: Arm-based PCs now account for about 20% of global shipments. 10 billion chips in a quarter is old news; the 20% PC share is what’s startling. The foundations of Wintel really are starting to crack. Qualcomm also has two custom chips for hyperscalers set to begin shipping next quarter. Non-phone revenue is expected to grow 60% for the full year, while phone revenue is actually expected to decline quarter over quarter. The money is all flowing toward AI.
On the crypto side, the compute-power narrative continues to spread, but Friday brings a double whammy—the U.S.-Iran talks and the nonfarm payrolls report. The market is still pricing in a 70–80% chance of a rate hike in December. BTC is swinging along with risk assets; don’t rush to call the rebound a reversal.
NFA DYOR
$BTC $ARM $QCOM
#AI #高通 #ARM #比特币 #Semiconductors
One came from Qualcomm: prices are rising across the entire product lineup due to higher semiconductor input costs, but it won’t fully benefit from those price increases until the second half of fiscal 2027. The AI tax takes more than six months to flow from upstream to the income statement, with chipmakers caught in the middle—when upstream prices rise, they have to follow; downstream, they can’t raise prices too aggressively. Even the pick-and-shovel sellers have to pay the AI tax.
The other came from ARM: Arm-based PCs now account for about 20% of global shipments. 10 billion chips in a quarter is old news; the 20% PC share is what’s startling. The foundations of Wintel really are starting to crack. Qualcomm also has two custom chips for hyperscalers set to begin shipping next quarter. Non-phone revenue is expected to grow 60% for the full year, while phone revenue is actually expected to decline quarter over quarter. The money is all flowing toward AI.
On the crypto side, the compute-power narrative continues to spread, but Friday brings a double whammy—the U.S.-Iran talks and the nonfarm payrolls report. The market is still pricing in a 70–80% chance of a rate hike in December. BTC is swinging along with risk assets; don’t rush to call the rebound a reversal.
NFA DYOR
$BTC $ARM $QCOM
#AI #高通 #ARM #比特币 #Semiconductors