Nov. 5 $BTC Analysis
With all the news clearly bearish, why is the market being pumped?
The repricing of the Fed’s policy path is the most direct factor weighing on the market. After Fed officials made hawkish remarks on November 4, market expectations for a rate hike in December remained above 73%, and interest rate futures even priced in room for another hike this year. Cooling expectations for rate cuts directly pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. As a non-yielding risk asset, Bitcoin consequently became more costly to hold in terms of opportunity cost. The macro narrative is shifting from “expectations of loose liquidity” to “valuation contraction amid persistently high interest rates,” which is particularly unfavorable for highly leveraged long positions.
Regulatory uncertainty stemming from the U.S. midterm elections has weakened crypto’s “certainty premium.” Expectations that Democrats will control Congress have slowed the progress of crypto-friendly legislation such as the CLARITY Act, and regulatory scrutiny may tighten. While this factor does not directly change Bitcoin’s long-term narrative, in the current fragile market structure, where leverage is heavily crowded, any negative shift at the margin in policy could trigger liquidations of long positions. My personal recommendation: short around 81000–81800, with a target around 79300–78500. #BTC #ETH #币安安全事件恢复进展：98%被盗资产已回填
With all the news clearly bearish, why is the market being pumped?
The repricing of the Fed’s policy path is the most direct factor weighing on the market. After Fed officials made hawkish remarks on November 4, market expectations for a rate hike in December remained above 73%, and interest rate futures even priced in room for another hike this year. Cooling expectations for rate cuts directly pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar. As a non-yielding risk asset, Bitcoin consequently became more costly to hold in terms of opportunity cost. The macro narrative is shifting from “expectations of loose liquidity” to “valuation contraction amid persistently high interest rates,” which is particularly unfavorable for highly leveraged long positions.
Regulatory uncertainty stemming from the U.S. midterm elections has weakened crypto’s “certainty premium.” Expectations that Democrats will control Congress have slowed the progress of crypto-friendly legislation such as the CLARITY Act, and regulatory scrutiny may tighten. While this factor does not directly change Bitcoin’s long-term narrative, in the current fragile market structure, where leverage is heavily crowded, any negative shift at the margin in policy could trigger liquidations of long positions. My personal recommendation: short around 81000–81800, with a target around 79300–78500. #BTC #ETH #币安安全事件恢复进展：98%被盗资产已回填
