Market Maker’s Perspective: $BTC The first four morning closes all held above 80,500, but the 11:00 close was only $17.9 above. This afternoon, watch the 12:00 close
📊 Midday Snapshot 12:46 SGT
Current price 80,675.8 (12:44 reading), 24h high 81,199.9 / low 76,945.4
OI 33,313.8 coins, approximately $2.688 billion, up about 112.0 coins from earlier this morning
Current funding rate 0.01% / 8h; previous settlement 0.0075% / 8h
In a sample of 100 trades over about 0.4 seconds, aggressive buys 95 / sells 5. This is only a snapshot of that moment, not evidence of market direction
📌 Morning recap: The morning session’s upside scenario played out based on the closing prices, but the level was only barely held
The morning invalidation condition was: if the 10:00 close held above 80,500, the retest would be confirmed. All four morning closes—08:00 at 80,517.4, 09:00 at 80,645.8, 10:00 at 80,541.2, and 11:00 at 80,517.9—were above 80,500, confirming the retest.
But it was a fragile confirmation: the 08:00 close was just $17.4 above the level, and the 11:00 close just $17.9 above it. After 09:00, both the highs and closes moved lower with each candle (highs: 80,886.4 → 80,832.9 → 80,810; closes: 80,645.8 → 80,541.2 → 80,517.9). The morning’s lowest wick was 80,215 at 09:00; price never touched 80,000. The 06:00 high was 80,941, while the morning high only reached 80,886.4—$54.6 short of that level.
The 12:00 candle is still in progress: the current price is 80,675.8, or $175.8 above 80,500. An intrabar move above the level doesn’t count; the close is what matters.
If I were the market maker:
These four morning closes are the kind of retest I’d want to see: the level held, positions increased by 112 coins, and the funding rate stayed in check. But I wouldn’t treat a $17 cushion as a moat. Holding a level at the close and establishing firm support are two different things. After 09:00, both the highs and closes kept stepping down, showing that buyers put in slightly less effort with each candle. Price didn’t reach 80,941, let alone the 81,300 area. My cost basis isn’t in the wicks; it’s in the closes. This afternoon’s close will determine whether those four morning candles count for anything.
Retail traders following the market maker: wait for confirmation
This afternoon, watch only the 12:00 candle’s close (result at 13:00):
✅ If the 1H close holds above 80,500, the morning retest continues; next watch the 80,941 close
✅ If the 1H close moves above 80,941, the retest strengthens; next watch 81,300–81,600
❌ If the 1H close falls back below 80,500, the morning retest is invalidated; next watch 80,000
❌ If the 1H close breaks below 80,000, the base gives way; next watch 79,800–80,100 and 78,900–79,200
The intrabar price, wicks, and sampled buy-side share are not trigger signals.
Invalidation levels: If the 12:00 session candle, which closes at 13:00, holds above 80,500, the view that the retest is continuing is confirmed. If it closes back below 80,500, the retest is invalidated. If it closes below 80,000, a breakdown of the base is confirmed.
For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
📊 Midday Snapshot 12:46 SGT
Current price 80,675.8 (12:44 reading), 24h high 81,199.9 / low 76,945.4
OI 33,313.8 coins, approximately $2.688 billion, up about 112.0 coins from earlier this morning
Current funding rate 0.01% / 8h; previous settlement 0.0075% / 8h
In a sample of 100 trades over about 0.4 seconds, aggressive buys 95 / sells 5. This is only a snapshot of that moment, not evidence of market direction
📌 Morning recap: The morning session’s upside scenario played out based on the closing prices, but the level was only barely held
The morning invalidation condition was: if the 10:00 close held above 80,500, the retest would be confirmed. All four morning closes—08:00 at 80,517.4, 09:00 at 80,645.8, 10:00 at 80,541.2, and 11:00 at 80,517.9—were above 80,500, confirming the retest.
But it was a fragile confirmation: the 08:00 close was just $17.4 above the level, and the 11:00 close just $17.9 above it. After 09:00, both the highs and closes moved lower with each candle (highs: 80,886.4 → 80,832.9 → 80,810; closes: 80,645.8 → 80,541.2 → 80,517.9). The morning’s lowest wick was 80,215 at 09:00; price never touched 80,000. The 06:00 high was 80,941, while the morning high only reached 80,886.4—$54.6 short of that level.
The 12:00 candle is still in progress: the current price is 80,675.8, or $175.8 above 80,500. An intrabar move above the level doesn’t count; the close is what matters.
If I were the market maker:
These four morning closes are the kind of retest I’d want to see: the level held, positions increased by 112 coins, and the funding rate stayed in check. But I wouldn’t treat a $17 cushion as a moat. Holding a level at the close and establishing firm support are two different things. After 09:00, both the highs and closes kept stepping down, showing that buyers put in slightly less effort with each candle. Price didn’t reach 80,941, let alone the 81,300 area. My cost basis isn’t in the wicks; it’s in the closes. This afternoon’s close will determine whether those four morning candles count for anything.
Retail traders following the market maker: wait for confirmation
This afternoon, watch only the 12:00 candle’s close (result at 13:00):
✅ If the 1H close holds above 80,500, the morning retest continues; next watch the 80,941 close
✅ If the 1H close moves above 80,941, the retest strengthens; next watch 81,300–81,600
❌ If the 1H close falls back below 80,500, the morning retest is invalidated; next watch 80,000
❌ If the 1H close breaks below 80,000, the base gives way; next watch 79,800–80,100 and 78,900–79,200
The intrabar price, wicks, and sampled buy-side share are not trigger signals.
Invalidation levels: If the 12:00 session candle, which closes at 13:00, holds above 80,500, the view that the retest is continuing is confirmed. If it closes back below 80,500, the retest is invalidated. If it closes below 80,000, a breakdown of the base is confirmed.
For discussion purposes only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerPerspective
