After yesterday’s BTC rebound, many people have started turning bullish again, but I don’t think we’re at the point where we can be broadly bullish yet.
The midterm elections are over, which has indeed temporarily eased some political uncertainty in the market. The dollar and Treasury yields have also pulled back, and short-term risks have eased somewhat.
But one issue remains unresolved: capital hasn’t really come back yet.
Since the end of October, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen significant net outflows. Futures open interest remains high, while spot buying has been relatively weak.
So in my view, this rebound doesn’t yet prove that institutions have resumed large-scale allocation. It’s more likely a recovery in market sentiment and short positions after the previous oversold conditions.
There are two key variables coming up:
First, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on November 6.
Second, the U.S. CPI data on November 10.
If inflation picks up again and the market raises its expectations for a December rate hike, the dollar and Treasury yields could strengthen again, putting BTC under renewed pressure.
So my position is clear for now:
Respect the short-term rebound, but don’t ignore the risk of a lack of liquidity in the medium term.
How much BTC is up today isn’t really the most important thing.
What really matters is whether real spot capital is willing to step in and buy when the price retests lower levels.
After all, short covering can push prices up, and a recovery in sentiment can also fuel a rebound. But for the market to move higher over the long run, it ultimately needs sustained capital support.
So I’d rather miss out on a rally that hasn’t been confirmed than rush to change my view of the market just because of one rebound.
#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ #BTC走势分析 $BTC
The midterm elections are over, which has indeed temporarily eased some political uncertainty in the market. The dollar and Treasury yields have also pulled back, and short-term risks have eased somewhat.
But one issue remains unresolved: capital hasn’t really come back yet.
Since the end of October, U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen significant net outflows. Futures open interest remains high, while spot buying has been relatively weak.
So in my view, this rebound doesn’t yet prove that institutions have resumed large-scale allocation. It’s more likely a recovery in market sentiment and short positions after the previous oversold conditions.
There are two key variables coming up:
First, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data on November 6.
Second, the U.S. CPI data on November 10.
If inflation picks up again and the market raises its expectations for a December rate hike, the dollar and Treasury yields could strengthen again, putting BTC under renewed pressure.
So my position is clear for now:
Respect the short-term rebound, but don’t ignore the risk of a lack of liquidity in the medium term.
How much BTC is up today isn’t really the most important thing.
What really matters is whether real spot capital is willing to step in and buy when the price retests lower levels.
After all, short covering can push prices up, and a recovery in sentiment can also fuel a rebound. But for the market to move higher over the long run, it ultimately needs sustained capital support.
So I’d rather miss out on a rally that hasn’t been confirmed than rush to change my view of the market just because of one rebound.
#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？ #BTC走势分析 $BTC