Nonfarm payrolls are coming out tonight! Beyond the outlook for a December rate hike, what impact will they have on U.S. stocks and Bitcoin?
The market has already priced in a nearly 80% chance of a rate hike. Tonight’s data will determine whether a rate hike is already priced in and the bad news is behind us, or whether tightening expectations will go through the roof.
$BTC is extremely sensitive to dollar liquidity and Treasury yields. If tonight’s nonfarm payrolls/wage data comes in scorching hot again and Treasury yields surge, short-term downside pressure will be inevitable—watch out for liquidations of leveraged long positions. Conversely, if the data cools significantly and the dollar falls, BTC could see a rapid short squeeze and rebound!
Overly strong data would deal a major blow to U.S. tech stocks, as the risk-free discount rate would keep rising and valuations would come under selling pressure. But if the data is too weak, the market will start worrying about a recession. That’s why U.S. stocks prefer data that’s neither too hot nor too cold.
Tonight, the main thing to watch is average hourly earnings. If wage growth doesn’t cool, tightening won’t stop. One more thing: the truly fearless have already opened positions and left it to fate.
#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？
The market has already priced in a nearly 80% chance of a rate hike. Tonight’s data will determine whether a rate hike is already priced in and the bad news is behind us, or whether tightening expectations will go through the roof.
$BTC is extremely sensitive to dollar liquidity and Treasury yields. If tonight’s nonfarm payrolls/wage data comes in scorching hot again and Treasury yields surge, short-term downside pressure will be inevitable—watch out for liquidations of leveraged long positions. Conversely, if the data cools significantly and the dollar falls, BTC could see a rapid short squeeze and rebound!
Overly strong data would deal a major blow to U.S. tech stocks, as the risk-free discount rate would keep rising and valuations would come under selling pressure. But if the data is too weak, the market will start worrying about a recession. That’s why U.S. stocks prefer data that’s neither too hot nor too cold.
Tonight, the main thing to watch is average hourly earnings. If wage growth doesn’t cool, tightening won’t stop. One more thing: the truly fearless have already opened positions and left it to fate.
#美国10月非农出炉：降息还有戏吗？