$牛来 has shifted from a liquidation-driven rebound to consolidation at higher levels, but one key confirmation is still missing: price has held steady, while open interest has not increased in tandem.
As of 10:55, spot was around 0.06682, up 9.33% over 24 hours; open interest was still down 1.96% over 24 hours, rising just 0.04% in the past 3 hours, and the long/short account ratio was about 1.45. Verifiable facts: price has moved back above the 1-hour EMA20/50, and the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are both around 61. The market’s inference is that spot buying support has improved, but futures capital has yet to confirm a second leg of the trend.
The condition of holding above 0.06460 for a full 1-hour period yesterday was triggered; 0.06690 has not yet been effectively triggered. There was no formal entry plan beforehand, so no entry was made. Holding 0.06440 could allow further tests of 0.06690 and 0.06850; a close back below 0.06390 would signal that the recovery is weakening.
Data on position concentration and full unlock details remain insufficient; holding steady on declining volume does not mean the risk has disappeared.
#牛来 #行情分析 #Risk Management
As of 10:55, spot was around 0.06682, up 9.33% over 24 hours; open interest was still down 1.96% over 24 hours, rising just 0.04% in the past 3 hours, and the long/short account ratio was about 1.45. Verifiable facts: price has moved back above the 1-hour EMA20/50, and the 1-hour and 4-hour RSI are both around 61. The market’s inference is that spot buying support has improved, but futures capital has yet to confirm a second leg of the trend.
The condition of holding above 0.06460 for a full 1-hour period yesterday was triggered; 0.06690 has not yet been effectively triggered. There was no formal entry plan beforehand, so no entry was made. Holding 0.06440 could allow further tests of 0.06690 and 0.06850; a close back below 0.06390 would signal that the recovery is weakening.
Data on position concentration and full unlock details remain insufficient; holding steady on declining volume does not mean the risk has disappeared.
#牛来 #行情分析 #Risk Management