#circle第三季度营收8.65亿美元 Circle revenue hits a record $865M: $182M came from selling its own token
EPS of $0.84 beat expectations by 127%. The stock rose 3% premarket, then fell 3.35% after the market took the earnings report apart. That rise and fall in a single day says more than the report itself.
📊 Key figures
· Revenue: $865M (+17%), more than 11% above expectations of $778M
· Net income: $226M (+5%); EPS: $0.84 (expected: $0.37)
· Reserve income: $658M (-8%); other income: $207M (+627%)
· Of that, $182M came from the presale of ARC tokens; excluding it, recurring other income was just $25M
· Yield: 3.5% (-61 bps); average USDC in circulation: $73.3B, down 4.2% quarter over quarter
· Market share: 27% (-1.83 percentage points); on-chain transaction volume: $13.9T (+49%)
· $13.9B held on Circle’s own platforms, accounting for 18.1% (+36%)
🔍 The key contradiction
$865M doesn’t mean “the business got better”; it means “the company issued and sold a token.” The $182M from selling ARC tokens to investors was booked as revenue. It’s compliant, but one-off. Excluding it, recurring other income was just $25M, below Q1’s $42M.
Earnings come from the size of the balances held × the yield—not transaction turnover. $13.9T is transaction volume; $73.3B is what stayed on the books. More frequent use didn’t mean much more money stayed, and with yield down to 3.5%, that wasn’t enough to boost reserve income.
🧊 Three reality checks
1. Excluding the $182M leaves about $683M, so year-over-year growth is no longer +17% (my estimate, not the company’s figure). Guidance has already made clear that this revenue won’t recur.
2. Don’t treat the 49% increase in transaction volume as good news. Balances held fell 4.2% quarter over quarter and market share dropped 1.83 percentage points. More usage doesn’t necessarily mean more earnings.
3. The 127% EPS beat was also supported by that same one-off. Net income rose 5% even as reserve income fell 8%—a result of the revenue mix, not wider spreads.
💡 My take
This is an example of old and new growth drivers changing places, not a stablecoin boom. I’m not chasing the new high, but I’m not bearish on USDC either. Both camps are looking at only half the picture.
Three things really matter: whether the share held on Circle’s own platforms can keep rising from 18.1%; whether token revenue can take over after ARC moves to PoS in 2027; and whether reserve yields can stop falling.
What’s underappreciated is Binance’s $100M investment. The distribution landscape has more impact on on-chain liquidity than an extra $180M earned in a single quarter. Don’t attribute BTC at 80,292 to Circle.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Guidance is forward-looking and figures may be updated as disclosures change.
Follow @阿Sue的加密日记 · Using data to expose crypto’s false signals
#Circle #USDC #Stablecoins #Binance #Earnings
EPS of $0.84 beat expectations by 127%. The stock rose 3% premarket, then fell 3.35% after the market took the earnings report apart. That rise and fall in a single day says more than the report itself.
📊 Key figures
· Revenue: $865M (+17%), more than 11% above expectations of $778M
· Net income: $226M (+5%); EPS: $0.84 (expected: $0.37)
· Reserve income: $658M (-8%); other income: $207M (+627%)
· Of that, $182M came from the presale of ARC tokens; excluding it, recurring other income was just $25M
· Yield: 3.5% (-61 bps); average USDC in circulation: $73.3B, down 4.2% quarter over quarter
· Market share: 27% (-1.83 percentage points); on-chain transaction volume: $13.9T (+49%)
· $13.9B held on Circle’s own platforms, accounting for 18.1% (+36%)
🔍 The key contradiction
$865M doesn’t mean “the business got better”; it means “the company issued and sold a token.” The $182M from selling ARC tokens to investors was booked as revenue. It’s compliant, but one-off. Excluding it, recurring other income was just $25M, below Q1’s $42M.
Earnings come from the size of the balances held × the yield—not transaction turnover. $13.9T is transaction volume; $73.3B is what stayed on the books. More frequent use didn’t mean much more money stayed, and with yield down to 3.5%, that wasn’t enough to boost reserve income.
🧊 Three reality checks
1. Excluding the $182M leaves about $683M, so year-over-year growth is no longer +17% (my estimate, not the company’s figure). Guidance has already made clear that this revenue won’t recur.
2. Don’t treat the 49% increase in transaction volume as good news. Balances held fell 4.2% quarter over quarter and market share dropped 1.83 percentage points. More usage doesn’t necessarily mean more earnings.
3. The 127% EPS beat was also supported by that same one-off. Net income rose 5% even as reserve income fell 8%—a result of the revenue mix, not wider spreads.
💡 My take
This is an example of old and new growth drivers changing places, not a stablecoin boom. I’m not chasing the new high, but I’m not bearish on USDC either. Both camps are looking at only half the picture.
Three things really matter: whether the share held on Circle’s own platforms can keep rising from 18.1%; whether token revenue can take over after ARC moves to PoS in 2027; and whether reserve yields can stop falling.
What’s underappreciated is Binance’s $100M investment. The distribution landscape has more impact on on-chain liquidity than an extra $180M earned in a single quarter. Don’t attribute BTC at 80,292 to Circle.
⚠️ Not investment advice. Guidance is forward-looking and figures may be updated as disclosures change.
Follow @阿Sue的加密日记 · Using data to expose crypto’s false signals
#Circle #USDC #Stablecoins #Binance #Earnings