From 81,180 to 80,900: Is a “small double top” forming? Understand the logic behind defending the 80,000 level—don’t become fuel for the bears during the main rally!
BTC held steady around 80,600 in a low-volume sideways move this morning. Last night, it hit the gas and surged to 81,188; this morning, a second push stalled at 80,912, forming what looks like a textbook “small double top” on the 15-minute chart. Plenty of left-side traders are probably itching to jump in, thinking the rebound is running out of steam and getting ready to short near 80,600.
But before placing any short trades, take a look at three strange things happening in the market:
First, during the overnight pullback, the price actually pierced the 80,000 psychological level, touching 79,900. But every time it got there, buyers quickly pushed it back above the moving-average support at 80,300. Traders who missed the move across the market are all waiting with buy orders at 79,000–79,500 to catch a technical “resistance-turned-support” entry, but the big players aren’t giving them the chance. They’re neither driving the price lower to liquidate longs (there’s barely any liquidity a few hundred dollars down) nor lowering themselves to let sidelined traders get on board.
Second, after that massive 5,500-dollar bullish candle, the price spent the whole night fluctuating above 80,000 without even reaching a 0.236 retracement, and volume at the bottom has been completely muted. If the big players really wanted to form a double top and distribute, they wouldn’t be grinding away so gently on low volume at 80,600. This limp-looking “failed breakout” is precisely the perfect bait for top-picking shorts. Only when the chart looks ready to collapse will bears confidently pile into positions at 80,600–80,900, with their stop-losses lined up neatly above 81,200.
Third, zoom out. Since sliding down from 87,000, the price has weathered tests from two major external events without breaking through the rock-solid 75,600–76,000 floor. The current rally is no mere “oversold bounce”; it’s a deep V-shaped reversal after a final washout on the daily chart. The same players accumulated plenty of blood-soaked coins at the bottom, so their medium-term target can’t possibly be just a quick 2,000-dollar profit at 82,000. The real concentration of short-side resistance above 81,000 starts at 83,000, and could even extend to a retest of the previous high at 87,000—turning this into a meat grinder for the bears.
What do you think of today’s sideways action around 80,600—is it a genuine double top, or a midair refueling stop on the way to 83,000? Share your thoughts in the comments.
BTC held steady around 80,600 in a low-volume sideways move this morning. Last night, it hit the gas and surged to 81,188; this morning, a second push stalled at 80,912, forming what looks like a textbook “small double top” on the 15-minute chart. Plenty of left-side traders are probably itching to jump in, thinking the rebound is running out of steam and getting ready to short near 80,600.
But before placing any short trades, take a look at three strange things happening in the market:
First, during the overnight pullback, the price actually pierced the 80,000 psychological level, touching 79,900. But every time it got there, buyers quickly pushed it back above the moving-average support at 80,300. Traders who missed the move across the market are all waiting with buy orders at 79,000–79,500 to catch a technical “resistance-turned-support” entry, but the big players aren’t giving them the chance. They’re neither driving the price lower to liquidate longs (there’s barely any liquidity a few hundred dollars down) nor lowering themselves to let sidelined traders get on board.
Second, after that massive 5,500-dollar bullish candle, the price spent the whole night fluctuating above 80,000 without even reaching a 0.236 retracement, and volume at the bottom has been completely muted. If the big players really wanted to form a double top and distribute, they wouldn’t be grinding away so gently on low volume at 80,600. This limp-looking “failed breakout” is precisely the perfect bait for top-picking shorts. Only when the chart looks ready to collapse will bears confidently pile into positions at 80,600–80,900, with their stop-losses lined up neatly above 81,200.
Third, zoom out. Since sliding down from 87,000, the price has weathered tests from two major external events without breaking through the rock-solid 75,600–76,000 floor. The current rally is no mere “oversold bounce”; it’s a deep V-shaped reversal after a final washout on the daily chart. The same players accumulated plenty of blood-soaked coins at the bottom, so their medium-term target can’t possibly be just a quick 2,000-dollar profit at 82,000. The real concentration of short-side resistance above 81,000 starts at 83,000, and could even extend to a retest of the previous high at 87,000—turning this into a meat grinder for the bears.
What do you think of today’s sideways action around 80,600—is it a genuine double top, or a midair refueling stop on the way to 83,000? Share your thoughts in the comments.