77% of the tokens are still locked up, and AKE has already crashed 36%
Let’s start with the data: I’m siding with the bears on this one.
AKE is currently at 0.00255, down 35.9% in 24 hours. It hit a high of 0.004045 and a low of 0.002421.
A huge 4-hour candle slammed the price from 0.002846 to 0.002421, with $36.7 million in volume on that single candle.
24-hour futures volume is $170 million, and the volume-weighted average price is 0.0030. The current price is already below it.
Put simply, this isn’t the broader market dragging it down.
BTC is at $80,690 over the same period, up 3.6% in 24 hours. AKE is falling on its own.
Let me make the bulls’ case for them.
It’s down 81.5% in 7 days and 88% in 30 days. From its all-time high of 0.1467, it’s already down 98%. After a drop this steep, a rebound wouldn’t be unreasonable.
Funding is -0.089% every 8 hours, and the short side is seriously crowded. If a rebound comes, short covering would provide ready-made fuel.
Based on a circulating supply of 22.8 billion tokens multiplied by the current price, its circulating market cap is only around $58 million. It’s a small market, so it wouldn’t take much to push the price up.
Now for the bears’ case—it stings more.
Only 23% of the total supply is circulating. The remaining 77% hasn’t been released yet, and the fully diluted valuation is roughly 4.4 times the market cap.
This token has a history of unlock-related sell-offs. The 2.1 billion tokens unlocked on October 21 triggered a dump that same day, and around November 21 is another familiar unlock window.
I’ve looked around, and I can’t find any new AKE announcements or partnerships today. This is purely a matter of token supply and sentiment driving the price.
Here’s how I see it: the oversold conditions are real, but so is the supply hanging overhead—and I believe the latter matters more.
That unreleased 77% is like a bucket of water hanging above our heads. The price has fallen this far and still hasn’t stopped bleeding, so why assume that pouring more supply onto the market will make it rise?
Here are the scenarios, laid out clearly.
If the price recovers the 0.0030 volume-weighted average and holds above it, I’ll accept that this oversold bounce could reach 0.0035 to 0.0040—around today’s high.
If it breaks below the 24-hour low of 0.002421, that means even this flimsy floor couldn’t hold. The next level to watch is the round-number mark at 0.0020.
If 0.0020 breaks, dip buyers won’t find any meaningful support either.
What am I going to do? I don’t hold this token, and I’m not planning to step in and buy the dip.
I’ll take another look if it gets back above 0.0030. Until then, I’m just watching from the sidelines. However badly it falls, it’s not my problem.
Will the bears push through 0.002421 and send it toward 0.0020, or will negative funding squeeze the shorts back up to 0.0030 first?
I’m betting on the former. What about you?
$AKE $BTC
#山寨币 #Unlock
Let’s start with the data: I’m siding with the bears on this one.
AKE is currently at 0.00255, down 35.9% in 24 hours. It hit a high of 0.004045 and a low of 0.002421.
A huge 4-hour candle slammed the price from 0.002846 to 0.002421, with $36.7 million in volume on that single candle.
24-hour futures volume is $170 million, and the volume-weighted average price is 0.0030. The current price is already below it.
Put simply, this isn’t the broader market dragging it down.
BTC is at $80,690 over the same period, up 3.6% in 24 hours. AKE is falling on its own.
Let me make the bulls’ case for them.
It’s down 81.5% in 7 days and 88% in 30 days. From its all-time high of 0.1467, it’s already down 98%. After a drop this steep, a rebound wouldn’t be unreasonable.
Funding is -0.089% every 8 hours, and the short side is seriously crowded. If a rebound comes, short covering would provide ready-made fuel.
Based on a circulating supply of 22.8 billion tokens multiplied by the current price, its circulating market cap is only around $58 million. It’s a small market, so it wouldn’t take much to push the price up.
Now for the bears’ case—it stings more.
Only 23% of the total supply is circulating. The remaining 77% hasn’t been released yet, and the fully diluted valuation is roughly 4.4 times the market cap.
This token has a history of unlock-related sell-offs. The 2.1 billion tokens unlocked on October 21 triggered a dump that same day, and around November 21 is another familiar unlock window.
I’ve looked around, and I can’t find any new AKE announcements or partnerships today. This is purely a matter of token supply and sentiment driving the price.
Here’s how I see it: the oversold conditions are real, but so is the supply hanging overhead—and I believe the latter matters more.
That unreleased 77% is like a bucket of water hanging above our heads. The price has fallen this far and still hasn’t stopped bleeding, so why assume that pouring more supply onto the market will make it rise?
Here are the scenarios, laid out clearly.
If the price recovers the 0.0030 volume-weighted average and holds above it, I’ll accept that this oversold bounce could reach 0.0035 to 0.0040—around today’s high.
If it breaks below the 24-hour low of 0.002421, that means even this flimsy floor couldn’t hold. The next level to watch is the round-number mark at 0.0020.
If 0.0020 breaks, dip buyers won’t find any meaningful support either.
What am I going to do? I don’t hold this token, and I’m not planning to step in and buy the dip.
I’ll take another look if it gets back above 0.0030. Until then, I’m just watching from the sidelines. However badly it falls, it’s not my problem.
Will the bears push through 0.002421 and send it toward 0.0020, or will negative funding squeeze the shorts back up to 0.0030 first?
I’m betting on the former. What about you?
$AKE $BTC
#山寨币 #Unlock
