The night chips plunged 9%, MSFT surged 6.7%
First, the data: I’m siding with software in this rotation.
Put simply, the biggest thing last night wasn’t how hard chips fell—it was Microsoft heading the other way all by itself.
MSFT perpetuals are at 556.9, up 6.67% over 24 hours, with a high of 559.63 and a low of 510.28. Contract trading volume came to $78.6 million.
In the spot market, MSFT closed up 6.4% on November 4, beating the Nasdaq 100 by a full 4.7 percentage points. That’s also its second straight day of gains.
The contrast is wild: SOXL perpetuals fell 9.2%, NVDA dropped 3.2%, and AMD gave back almost all of its 10% earnings-day gain in a single day, ending up just 1.0%.
Even QQQ rose only 0.9%. Microsoft’s 6.7% gain wasn’t just riding the broader market—it powered higher on its own.
More interestingly, GOOGL also rose 3.3%. Last night, money didn’t pull out of AI; it shifted from chipmakers selling the shovels to cloud and software companies collecting the rent.
The bull case.
The bulls have some strong cards: Microsoft posted $92.3 billion in revenue last quarter, up 19% year over year; Azure surged 48%; operating income rose 21%; and EPS of $4.89 beat expectations.
The stock also bounced from around its 50-day moving average. Spot-market analysis put that line near 515, and after closing at 521 on November 3, it rebounded straight from that level last night.
The bear case.
The bears have a point, too: on October 29, Griffin had just cut its rating from Buy to Neutral, and reports of a planned $25 billion bond offering put the cost of AI spending squarely in the spotlight.
Put simply, there’s one key question: no matter how much money the cloud business makes, when does the spending stop?
My take.
I’m siding with software in this rotation, and the reason is simple: Azure’s 48% growth is rent actually being collected every month, while the chip side is still telling stories about next-generation orders.
One is collecting rent, the other is selling a dream. I’m not surprised money is moving toward the rent collectors first.
But let me be clear: a 6.7% gain in one day doesn’t confirm a reversal. Chasing it above 559 is no different from chasing chips yesterday—you’re just buying into the hype.
Scenarios.
If it holds above 560, I think there’s room to run toward 570–580.
If it falls below 540, the weighted average price, that means last night was a one-day wonder. First watch 530, then the 50-day line at 515.
If it breaks below 515, the whole thesis in this post is shot. I’ll take the loss.
One last question: does it hold above 560, with software taking the lead—or fall below 540 and give back the gains, heading to 515? I’m betting on the first scenario. Azure’s 48% growth is real money, not just a slogan. What about you?
$MSFT $SOXL $GOOGL
#微软 #USStocks
First, the data: I’m siding with software in this rotation.
Put simply, the biggest thing last night wasn’t how hard chips fell—it was Microsoft heading the other way all by itself.
MSFT perpetuals are at 556.9, up 6.67% over 24 hours, with a high of 559.63 and a low of 510.28. Contract trading volume came to $78.6 million.
In the spot market, MSFT closed up 6.4% on November 4, beating the Nasdaq 100 by a full 4.7 percentage points. That’s also its second straight day of gains.
The contrast is wild: SOXL perpetuals fell 9.2%, NVDA dropped 3.2%, and AMD gave back almost all of its 10% earnings-day gain in a single day, ending up just 1.0%.
Even QQQ rose only 0.9%. Microsoft’s 6.7% gain wasn’t just riding the broader market—it powered higher on its own.
More interestingly, GOOGL also rose 3.3%. Last night, money didn’t pull out of AI; it shifted from chipmakers selling the shovels to cloud and software companies collecting the rent.
The bull case.
The bulls have some strong cards: Microsoft posted $92.3 billion in revenue last quarter, up 19% year over year; Azure surged 48%; operating income rose 21%; and EPS of $4.89 beat expectations.
The stock also bounced from around its 50-day moving average. Spot-market analysis put that line near 515, and after closing at 521 on November 3, it rebounded straight from that level last night.
The bear case.
The bears have a point, too: on October 29, Griffin had just cut its rating from Buy to Neutral, and reports of a planned $25 billion bond offering put the cost of AI spending squarely in the spotlight.
Put simply, there’s one key question: no matter how much money the cloud business makes, when does the spending stop?
My take.
I’m siding with software in this rotation, and the reason is simple: Azure’s 48% growth is rent actually being collected every month, while the chip side is still telling stories about next-generation orders.
One is collecting rent, the other is selling a dream. I’m not surprised money is moving toward the rent collectors first.
But let me be clear: a 6.7% gain in one day doesn’t confirm a reversal. Chasing it above 559 is no different from chasing chips yesterday—you’re just buying into the hype.
Scenarios.
If it holds above 560, I think there’s room to run toward 570–580.
If it falls below 540, the weighted average price, that means last night was a one-day wonder. First watch 530, then the 50-day line at 515.
If it breaks below 515, the whole thesis in this post is shot. I’ll take the loss.
One last question: does it hold above 560, with software taking the lead—or fall below 540 and give back the gains, heading to 515? I’m betting on the first scenario. Azure’s 48% growth is real money, not just a slogan. What about you?
$MSFT $SOXL $GOOGL
#微软 #USStocks
