🇺🇸 US OCTOBER NFP: Are Rate Cuts Still Possible?

Release: Friday Nov 6, 8:30 AM ET — Bureau of Labor Statistics
What Wall Street Expects:
NFP Forecast: 65K Jobs — Well below 100K, cooling labor demand (Sept was only 29K!)Unemployment: 4.2% — Holding steady, labor market easingFed Current: 3.75%-4.00% — Held on Oct 28, no changeADP Warm-up: 86K private jobs in October — Beat 75K est., matches Sept revised
Rate-Cut Math:
Rate-cut probability now ∼30% for Dec FOMC (Dec 18), down from ∼50% last week. Why? If jobs beat 65K, Fed stays higher-for-longer.
3 Scenarios For Friday:
BELOW 50K = Cuts ON — Labor cracking, Dec cut back to 60%. $BTC to $118K65K = Hold — Goldilocks. Market flat. Fed waitsABOVE 80K = No Cuts — Hot labor, wage inflation. Risk assets dump
Hidden Insight:
PMI Flash shows resilience, weekly claims stable. Citi says wage growth matters MORE than headline. ADP based on 26M payrolls shows stability.
Key Takeaway: Data opens path for cut, but Fed remains cautious. One report doesn't guarantee cuts.
Are you long or short into NFP?
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