AMD earnings rose 10% in just one day, and SOXL flipped to -11%
Yesterday I said if it breaks below 67.86, look for 64; I’m on the short side, and it played out even faster than I expected.
As soon as the U.S. market opened last night, semiconductors sold off hard. SOXL perpetual 24h was -11.3%, current price 65.4, and the intraday low hit 62.36.
That 64 level I mentioned yesterday got smashed straight through by the hourly candle at 23:00 last night, on the day’s highest volume of 15.05 million shares.
This isn’t just a bearish thesis being confirmed; it’s the bears taking out the next target level too.
First, the data.
SOXL traded $7.94 billion in the past 24 hours. For a 3x leveraged product, that kind of volume means the whole market is running.
The inverse short ETF SOXS rose 11.6%, so people on the short side are really making money.
AMD jumped 10.5% on earnings yesterday, but today it’s down 1.7% in the perpetual market at 482, already down more than 10% from yesterday’s high of 536.4.
NVDA -2.2%, Micron -5.7%, SanDisk -7.6%, Supermicro -5.7% — not a single name in the whole sector is standing.
But QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, is still up 0.8% today, so this isn’t the broader market collapsing; it’s semiconductors collapsing on their own.
What the bulls say.
AMD’s earnings were genuinely strong: revenue of $13.38 billion beat expectations, Q4 guidance of $17 billion was well above consensus, and data center revenue more than doubled.
The 62.36 low at dawn bounced back to 68 within an hour, which means someone stepped in at that level; it wasn’t a free fall that nobody wanted.
The SOX index has already fallen 22% from its October 6 high, and it’s now in a technical bear market for the second time. After a selloff like this, valuations eventually find a floor.
What the bears say.
Morningstar wrote it very bluntly this morning: the midterm election result directly hit the core of optimism around data centers.
After the sweep, policy and spending pace for AI infrastructure are full of uncertainty. The market is no longer rewarding a single quarter’s earnings; it’s pricing macro conditions.
AMD’s positive catalyst lasted only one day before being given back — that’s the evidence. Earnings can’t save a bear market.
The funding rate is 0.06%, not extreme, which suggests this isn’t a squeeze reversal, but real selling pressure.
My view.
I’m on the short side, but not blindly bearish.
AMD’s earnings really were strong, but one AMD can’t save an entire sector. What the sector needs is clearer policy and valuation cleansing, and right now it has neither.
That 62.36 bottom was made by panic selling overnight. Whether it can hold depends on whether there are more buyers when the U.S. market opens tonight.
In plain terms, between “good news fully priced in” and “bad news fully priced in,” we’re still one breath away from the latter.
Scenario analysis.
If it gets back above 68.68 and holds, the bears lose grip, and I’d look at 72, around yesterday’s 22:00 candle close.
If it breaks below 62.36, then this is no longer a pullback; it’s heading toward 60, and with 3x leverage, that move can happen in a single hourly candle.
What I plan to do.
I’m not touching it tonight. With 3x leverage and this kind of volatility, chasing it could wipe you out in one spike.
I’ll wait for it to choose a side: if it reclaims 68.68, I’ll admit the bears have loosened their grip; if it breaks below 62.36, I’ll admit it’s still getting sold. Until then, I’m just watching.
Is reclaiming 68.68 enough to count as the bears loosening their grip, or does a break below 62.36 mean it keeps dumping toward 60? I’m on the latter — what about you?
$SOXL $AMD $SOXS
#半导体 #US stocks
Yesterday I said if it breaks below 67.86, look for 64; I’m on the short side, and it played out even faster than I expected.
As soon as the U.S. market opened last night, semiconductors sold off hard. SOXL perpetual 24h was -11.3%, current price 65.4, and the intraday low hit 62.36.
That 64 level I mentioned yesterday got smashed straight through by the hourly candle at 23:00 last night, on the day’s highest volume of 15.05 million shares.
This isn’t just a bearish thesis being confirmed; it’s the bears taking out the next target level too.
First, the data.
SOXL traded $7.94 billion in the past 24 hours. For a 3x leveraged product, that kind of volume means the whole market is running.
The inverse short ETF SOXS rose 11.6%, so people on the short side are really making money.
AMD jumped 10.5% on earnings yesterday, but today it’s down 1.7% in the perpetual market at 482, already down more than 10% from yesterday’s high of 536.4.
NVDA -2.2%, Micron -5.7%, SanDisk -7.6%, Supermicro -5.7% — not a single name in the whole sector is standing.
But QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, is still up 0.8% today, so this isn’t the broader market collapsing; it’s semiconductors collapsing on their own.
What the bulls say.
AMD’s earnings were genuinely strong: revenue of $13.38 billion beat expectations, Q4 guidance of $17 billion was well above consensus, and data center revenue more than doubled.
The 62.36 low at dawn bounced back to 68 within an hour, which means someone stepped in at that level; it wasn’t a free fall that nobody wanted.
The SOX index has already fallen 22% from its October 6 high, and it’s now in a technical bear market for the second time. After a selloff like this, valuations eventually find a floor.
What the bears say.
Morningstar wrote it very bluntly this morning: the midterm election result directly hit the core of optimism around data centers.
After the sweep, policy and spending pace for AI infrastructure are full of uncertainty. The market is no longer rewarding a single quarter’s earnings; it’s pricing macro conditions.
AMD’s positive catalyst lasted only one day before being given back — that’s the evidence. Earnings can’t save a bear market.
The funding rate is 0.06%, not extreme, which suggests this isn’t a squeeze reversal, but real selling pressure.
My view.
I’m on the short side, but not blindly bearish.
AMD’s earnings really were strong, but one AMD can’t save an entire sector. What the sector needs is clearer policy and valuation cleansing, and right now it has neither.
That 62.36 bottom was made by panic selling overnight. Whether it can hold depends on whether there are more buyers when the U.S. market opens tonight.
In plain terms, between “good news fully priced in” and “bad news fully priced in,” we’re still one breath away from the latter.
Scenario analysis.
If it gets back above 68.68 and holds, the bears lose grip, and I’d look at 72, around yesterday’s 22:00 candle close.
If it breaks below 62.36, then this is no longer a pullback; it’s heading toward 60, and with 3x leverage, that move can happen in a single hourly candle.
What I plan to do.
I’m not touching it tonight. With 3x leverage and this kind of volatility, chasing it could wipe you out in one spike.
I’ll wait for it to choose a side: if it reclaims 68.68, I’ll admit the bears have loosened their grip; if it breaks below 62.36, I’ll admit it’s still getting sold. Until then, I’m just watching.
Is reclaiming 68.68 enough to count as the bears loosening their grip, or does a break below 62.36 mean it keeps dumping toward 60? I’m on the latter — what about you?
$SOXL $AMD $SOXS
#半导体 #US stocks
