November 4 Fact Brief: Circle’s Presale Boundary, U.S. Refinancing, and China’s Relending
Historical update | Event window through 23:59 on November 4, 2026 (Shanghai); compiled early November 5. The following are public facts, not real-time market data.
Five stages: ① demand → ② commitment → ③ delivery/inflows → ④ revenue → ⑤ ultimate value. A = dated, full primary source; A-P = primary-source plan/company statement. An A-rated earnings report does not mean an independent audit.
1 | Circle: Usage is growing, but profits must first be adjusted for presales
Disclosed November 4, for Q3 through September 30: average USDC of $73.3 billion, up 8% year over year; on-chain transactions of $13.9 trillion, up 49%; total revenue and reserve income of $864.9 million; and net income from continuing operations of $226.0 million.
Total revenue includes $182 million from the ARC presale. Excluding ARC, the company reported revenue of $683 million and adjusted EBITDA of $135 million, below $171 million on the same basis last year; adjusted EBITDA including ARC was $317 million. Reserve income was $657.6 million, down 8% year over year.
Stage ③→④/⑤, evidence A. The figure excluding presales is still a company-adjusted measure, not fully normalized free cash flow; presale revenue is not token-holder revenue.
Research implication (inference): Growth in usage cannot be directly annualized as recurring profit; shareholder cash realization remains subject to verification against full cash-flow data.
Primary sources:
https://s206.q4cdn.com/265218871/files/doc_earnings/2026/q3/earnings-result/3Q26-Earnings-Release.pdf
https://s206.q4cdn.com/265218871/files/doc_earnings/2026/q3/presentation/3Q26-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
2 | U.S. Treasury: $125 billion is gross refinancing
Statement at 08:30 ET on November 4 (21:30 Shanghai): plans to issue $125 billion, repay about $97 billion in maturing debt, and raise an estimated $28 billion in new cash. The 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities are $58 billion, $42 billion, and $25 billion, respectively; auctions are planned for November 9, 10, and 12, with settlement on November 16.
Stage ②, evidence A-P; a future plan, not yet a completed transaction or funds received.
Research implication (inference): Do not treat $125 billion as same-day net liquidity or add it to net borrowing projections from an earlier quarter.
Primary source:
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678
3 | China’s central bank: Relending rate cut; applications do not equal purchases
Announcement published at 09:03:57 (Shanghai) on November 4: the interest rate on relending for stock buybacks and increased holdings was cut by 25 basis points to 1%; banks have submitted applications exceeding RMB 200 billion.
Stage ②, evidence A-P; the application amount is not the final amount disbursed, much less completed stock purchases.
Research implication (inference): Lower financing costs improve the terms of the facility, but evidence of funds being deployed and their impact on equity value still requires execution data.
Primary source:
https://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/2026110408502315269/index.html
Historical update | Event window through 23:59 on November 4, 2026 (Shanghai); compiled early November 5. The following are public facts, not real-time market data.
Five stages: ① demand → ② commitment → ③ delivery/inflows → ④ revenue → ⑤ ultimate value. A = dated, full primary source; A-P = primary-source plan/company statement. An A-rated earnings report does not mean an independent audit.
1 | Circle: Usage is growing, but profits must first be adjusted for presales
Disclosed November 4, for Q3 through September 30: average USDC of $73.3 billion, up 8% year over year; on-chain transactions of $13.9 trillion, up 49%; total revenue and reserve income of $864.9 million; and net income from continuing operations of $226.0 million.
Total revenue includes $182 million from the ARC presale. Excluding ARC, the company reported revenue of $683 million and adjusted EBITDA of $135 million, below $171 million on the same basis last year; adjusted EBITDA including ARC was $317 million. Reserve income was $657.6 million, down 8% year over year.
Stage ③→④/⑤, evidence A. The figure excluding presales is still a company-adjusted measure, not fully normalized free cash flow; presale revenue is not token-holder revenue.
Research implication (inference): Growth in usage cannot be directly annualized as recurring profit; shareholder cash realization remains subject to verification against full cash-flow data.
Primary sources:
https://s206.q4cdn.com/265218871/files/doc_earnings/2026/q3/earnings-result/3Q26-Earnings-Release.pdf
https://s206.q4cdn.com/265218871/files/doc_earnings/2026/q3/presentation/3Q26-Earnings-Presentation.pdf
2 | U.S. Treasury: $125 billion is gross refinancing
Statement at 08:30 ET on November 4 (21:30 Shanghai): plans to issue $125 billion, repay about $97 billion in maturing debt, and raise an estimated $28 billion in new cash. The 3-, 10-, and 30-year maturities are $58 billion, $42 billion, and $25 billion, respectively; auctions are planned for November 9, 10, and 12, with settlement on November 16.
Stage ②, evidence A-P; a future plan, not yet a completed transaction or funds received.
Research implication (inference): Do not treat $125 billion as same-day net liquidity or add it to net borrowing projections from an earlier quarter.
Primary source:
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0678
3 | China’s central bank: Relending rate cut; applications do not equal purchases
Announcement published at 09:03:57 (Shanghai) on November 4: the interest rate on relending for stock buybacks and increased holdings was cut by 25 basis points to 1%; banks have submitted applications exceeding RMB 200 billion.
Stage ②, evidence A-P; the application amount is not the final amount disbursed, much less completed stock purchases.
Research implication (inference): Lower financing costs improve the terms of the facility, but evidence of funds being deployed and their impact on equity value still requires execution data.
Primary source:
https://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/2026110408502315269/index.html
