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November 5–6 Crypto Intelligence | Oversold Bounce · ETF Flows Diverge · Leverage Standoff
BTC rebounded from a seven-week low of 75,600 to above 77,600, driven by greater clarity around expectations for the midterm elections. 10x Research put it plainly: the market is oversold and should bounce. But 78,000 is resistance, 76,000 is support, and the direction has yet to be confirmed. The November 6 nonfarm payrolls report is the week’s real pricing moment.
A contradiction has emerged in the leverage structure: total crypto open interest has fallen to $284.1 billion, a 12-month low; BTC liquidations on November 1 were just 0.22 times the 30-day average—everyone who was going to get blown out already has. But BTC perpetual funding rates are still at +0.0100%, meaning longs are still paying shorts. The positions have been cleared out, but the conviction hasn’t. Those stubbornly holding on are fuel for the next move.
The “nature” of ETF outflows is more telling than their “size.” BTC ETFs saw $741 million in outflows over seven days, while ETH ETFs saw $446 million over the same period—seemingly similar. But IBIT’s outflows came in a burst: $405 million in a single day, more than the entire market’s net outflows, while other issuers actually saw net inflows that day, offsetting them. ETHA’s outflows were a steady drain: outflows for the seventh consecutive day, accounting for about 76.7% of daily outflows, with no offsetting inflows on any of those days. Beneath the same appearance of “bleeding,” IBIT clients are rebalancing, while ETHA holders are exiting.
A deeper signal: addresses linked to BlackRock ETFs transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH, worth about $702 million in total, to Coinbase Prime within an hour. Redemption pressure has moved beyond the figures on the books to on-chain execution.
On the regulatory front, the SEC issued a no-action letter to Canton Coin, stating that tokens generated by network activity may not need to be registered as securities. The legislative stalemate is in Congress; the SEC is drawing the regulatory boundaries one by one.
When looking at ETF data, don’t just ask “how much flowed out”; ask “who is selling, and how?” The size tells you how much pressure there is; the nature of the flows tells you where it’s coming from.
That’s all for this edition. I’m Chen Kai—see you next time.
BTC rebounded from a seven-week low of 75,600 to above 77,600, driven by greater clarity around expectations for the midterm elections. 10x Research put it plainly: the market is oversold and should bounce. But 78,000 is resistance, 76,000 is support, and the direction has yet to be confirmed. The November 6 nonfarm payrolls report is the week’s real pricing moment.
A contradiction has emerged in the leverage structure: total crypto open interest has fallen to $284.1 billion, a 12-month low; BTC liquidations on November 1 were just 0.22 times the 30-day average—everyone who was going to get blown out already has. But BTC perpetual funding rates are still at +0.0100%, meaning longs are still paying shorts. The positions have been cleared out, but the conviction hasn’t. Those stubbornly holding on are fuel for the next move.
The “nature” of ETF outflows is more telling than their “size.” BTC ETFs saw $741 million in outflows over seven days, while ETH ETFs saw $446 million over the same period—seemingly similar. But IBIT’s outflows came in a burst: $405 million in a single day, more than the entire market’s net outflows, while other issuers actually saw net inflows that day, offsetting them. ETHA’s outflows were a steady drain: outflows for the seventh consecutive day, accounting for about 76.7% of daily outflows, with no offsetting inflows on any of those days. Beneath the same appearance of “bleeding,” IBIT clients are rebalancing, while ETHA holders are exiting.
A deeper signal: addresses linked to BlackRock ETFs transferred 7,244 BTC and 63,600 ETH, worth about $702 million in total, to Coinbase Prime within an hour. Redemption pressure has moved beyond the figures on the books to on-chain execution.
On the regulatory front, the SEC issued a no-action letter to Canton Coin, stating that tokens generated by network activity may not need to be registered as securities. The legislative stalemate is in Congress; the SEC is drawing the regulatory boundaries one by one.
When looking at ETF data, don’t just ask “how much flowed out”; ask “who is selling, and how?” The size tells you how much pressure there is; the nature of the flows tells you where it’s coming from.
That’s all for this edition. I’m Chen Kai—see you next time.
