$HUMA 24 hours -19.71%, this four-hour candle -5.13%, and the most recent hour -1.79%. Only about a quarter of the total decline happened in these last four hours; the rest occurred earlier.
What concerns me is that funding costs haven't moved along with it. The price fell 20%, but the funding rate is only -0.0482%, almost right on the zero line; the mark price of 0.016951 is also just 0.23% below the spot price of 0.01699. After this entire stretch of declines, the funding cost on the perpetuals is still close to neutral, with no move further into negative territory.
24-hour trading volume is about 11.7 million USDT. The current price of 0.01699 is 1.9% above the four-hour low of 0.01667, and still 6.5% below the high of 0.01809. The last hour alone ranged from 0.01667 to 0.0175, a 5.0% move, while the entire four-hour candle's range was just 8.5%.
For the price to move lower, we would first need to see volume expand as 0.01667 breaks, while the funding rate moves away from the zero line. A recovery to 0.0175 and a hold above it would mean the last hour's back-and-forth is over. Another possibility is an immediate reversal: with the rate hovering near zero and the price less than 2% above the low, it could recover this entire move within an hour.
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What concerns me is that funding costs haven't moved along with it. The price fell 20%, but the funding rate is only -0.0482%, almost right on the zero line; the mark price of 0.016951 is also just 0.23% below the spot price of 0.01699. After this entire stretch of declines, the funding cost on the perpetuals is still close to neutral, with no move further into negative territory.
24-hour trading volume is about 11.7 million USDT. The current price of 0.01699 is 1.9% above the four-hour low of 0.01667, and still 6.5% below the high of 0.01809. The last hour alone ranged from 0.01667 to 0.0175, a 5.0% move, while the entire four-hour candle's range was just 8.5%.
For the price to move lower, we would first need to see volume expand as 0.01667 breaks, while the funding rate moves away from the zero line. A recovery to 0.0175 and a hold above it would mean the last hour's back-and-forth is over. Another possibility is an immediate reversal: with the rate hovering near zero and the price less than 2% above the low, it could recover this entire move within an hour.
#MarketAnalysis
