Democrats have clinched the Senate, and this morning’s markets looked like a multi-asset party—except every asset was playing a different tune.
Gold rose nearly 2% to above 4,004, while silver jumped 3% to 51.38. A softer dollar lifted hard assets across the board. World Gold Council data makes for interesting reading: central banks bought a net 321 tonnes in Q3, the most since 2024 began. When it comes to buying gold, the national teams are far more active than retail investors.
The most surreal move was in fuel oil: LU plunged more than 7% at one point intraday. Three factors came together: the US and Iran both signaling willingness to discuss terms, growing bets on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and investors cutting positions ahead of the election. The geopolitical premium has shifted from “tail risk” to “a negotiating issue with a path to resolution”—and unwinding it can be utterly unforgiving.
BTC staged a V-shaped rebound, knocking on the door of 78,000, but spot ETFs saw $1.04 billion in net outflows over two days, with IBIT alone accounting for $405 million. Futures saw leveraged positions panic-liquidated, while buyers stepped in on the spot market. But institutional wallets are telling the truth: prices are rising, while money is flowing out.
Don’t let your guard down on Iran: four oil tankers hit mines and were put out of service, while two were seized. Close-range mine-laying by underwater drones is still ongoing. Trump admitted on Fox that the war is behind high oil prices, calling it “an unpleasant night.”
My take: assets moving in opposite directions shows there’s no market consensus, only volatility. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are just ahead, and the odds of a December rate hike are priced at 80%. Treat the rebound as a choppy market, not a reversal to chase.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #黄金 #中期选举 #美联储 #CrudeOil
Gold rose nearly 2% to above 4,004, while silver jumped 3% to 51.38. A softer dollar lifted hard assets across the board. World Gold Council data makes for interesting reading: central banks bought a net 321 tonnes in Q3, the most since 2024 began. When it comes to buying gold, the national teams are far more active than retail investors.
The most surreal move was in fuel oil: LU plunged more than 7% at one point intraday. Three factors came together: the US and Iran both signaling willingness to discuss terms, growing bets on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and investors cutting positions ahead of the election. The geopolitical premium has shifted from “tail risk” to “a negotiating issue with a path to resolution”—and unwinding it can be utterly unforgiving.
BTC staged a V-shaped rebound, knocking on the door of 78,000, but spot ETFs saw $1.04 billion in net outflows over two days, with IBIT alone accounting for $405 million. Futures saw leveraged positions panic-liquidated, while buyers stepped in on the spot market. But institutional wallets are telling the truth: prices are rising, while money is flowing out.
Don’t let your guard down on Iran: four oil tankers hit mines and were put out of service, while two were seized. Close-range mine-laying by underwater drones is still ongoing. Trump admitted on Fox that the war is behind high oil prices, calling it “an unpleasant night.”
My take: assets moving in opposite directions shows there’s no market consensus, only volatility. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are just ahead, and the odds of a December rate hike are priced at 80%. Treat the rebound as a choppy market, not a reversal to chase.
NFA DYOR
#比特币 #黄金 #中期选举 #美联储 #CrudeOil