#美国中期选举：市场有哪些期待？
After a crushing midterm defeat, what collapsed for Trump wasn’t his public image, but his fantasy of “remaking America through legislation.” With Democrats winning both chambers, all he has left is the veto and executive orders.
My view: He won’t admit defeat. He’ll shift from a “legislative president” to a “president of executive orders and foreign-policy adventures.” His hands will be tied on domestic policy, so he’ll issue more executive orders—but they can be blocked by the courts or overturned by his successor. The more his efforts hit a wall, the more likely he is to create faits accomplis through foreign policy and trade.
Economically, the taps on new tax cuts and fiscal expansion will be turned down, a marginal positive for Treasuries and a drag on tech stock valuations. AI regulations may be vetoed, but investigations, hearings, and subpoenas themselves carry a political risk premium.
Historically, plenty of presidents have won reelection after suffering major midterm losses, but Reagan and Clinton both moved back toward the center. Trump will probably do the opposite: become a more combative lame duck.
Over the next two years, watch three things: whether congressional investigations escalate into impeachment, how far his executive orders get through the judicial system, and whether he creates an external crisis to offset his domestic predicament. $BTC
Personal opinion only; not investment advice.
After a crushing midterm defeat, what collapsed for Trump wasn’t his public image, but his fantasy of “remaking America through legislation.” With Democrats winning both chambers, all he has left is the veto and executive orders.
My view: He won’t admit defeat. He’ll shift from a “legislative president” to a “president of executive orders and foreign-policy adventures.” His hands will be tied on domestic policy, so he’ll issue more executive orders—but they can be blocked by the courts or overturned by his successor. The more his efforts hit a wall, the more likely he is to create faits accomplis through foreign policy and trade.
Economically, the taps on new tax cuts and fiscal expansion will be turned down, a marginal positive for Treasuries and a drag on tech stock valuations. AI regulations may be vetoed, but investigations, hearings, and subpoenas themselves carry a political risk premium.
Historically, plenty of presidents have won reelection after suffering major midterm losses, but Reagan and Clinton both moved back toward the center. Trump will probably do the opposite: become a more combative lame duck.
Over the next two years, watch three things: whether congressional investigations escalate into impeachment, how far his executive orders get through the judicial system, and whether he creates an external crisis to offset his domestic predicament. $BTC
Personal opinion only; not investment advice.
