I think the biggest reason Trump lost so badly—even losing Texas—is obvious: the war with Iran. The nuclear issue remains unresolved, oil prices have doubled, inflation has picked up again and rate hikes have resumed. People feel it most when they have no money in their pockets, and stocks were also hammered right before the election.

If Republicans want any chance of turning things around in the next election, ending the war sooner is key. Otherwise, it’ll be the Democrats’ biggest talking point again come election time. (That’s why, as soon as today’s results came in, oil prices plunged.)

With Democrats controlling both chambers, no matter what they said before the election about not letting data centers take resources away from people’s livelihoods, they’ll still push ahead with AI. Silicon Valley is the Democrats’ stronghold. They’ll still develop stablecoins, too—strengthening the dollar system is a core interest shared by both parties. On the other hand, now that Trump has lost both chambers, he can’t get orders out of the White House and can’t pull any more stunts.

As far as I can see, there don’t seem to be any more bearish factors to worry about before the midterms.

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