A Polymarket account with no name, known only as 0xA2, made about $917,000 in a single day betting on the U.S. midterm elections, topping the platform’s daily profit leaderboard. Even crazier, his second-largest position was a $1.42 million bet that the U.S. would confirm the existence of aliens before 2027. Is this person a genius, or just a gambler?
According to Decrypt, his biggest bet was that Republicans wouldn’t win a single swing-state Senate seat. When he wagered about $610,000, the odds of that outcome were just 36%. After the votes were counted, Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, and the odds climbed to 87%, bringing his position to about $1.48 million—an on-paper gain of more than $800,000. He also correctly bet that Democrats would win the Texas Senate race, locking in about $106,000. Decrypt also found that on an ordinary trading day in March, the top earner on the leaderboard made just $154,000.
That same night, Bitcoin was far less calm. During the vote count, $BTC briefly fell to $75,618, a seven-week low, before bouncing back near $78,000 over the next three hours. Cointelegraph reported about $288 million in long liquidations over 24 hours. According to Kelly Ye, head of research at Talos, after polling stations closed, the odds of a Democratic sweep on Kalshi surged from about 74% to 99%. In Ye’s view, election night made it crystal clear just how quickly round-the-clock markets can move while traditional exchanges are closed.
But he hasn’t got all his money in hand yet. The results in Alaska are still outstanding, and Polymarket puts the odds of an upset there at 14%. If the race flips, his biggest position could lose. The way I see it, people can look at the same vote count and one makes more than $800,000 while another gets liquidated—the only difference is being on the right side of the bet.
If you were holding this $1.48 million position, would you sell half now and lock in the profit, or wait for the final vote in Alaska?
See today’s other highlights in the image 👆
⚠️ Not investment advice · DYOR
#中期选举 #Polymarket #币圈晚报
This article is sponsored by AVE
https://share.ave.ai?lang=en&code=nancy.c0813
According to Decrypt, his biggest bet was that Republicans wouldn’t win a single swing-state Senate seat. When he wagered about $610,000, the odds of that outcome were just 36%. After the votes were counted, Democrats took control of both the House and Senate, and the odds climbed to 87%, bringing his position to about $1.48 million—an on-paper gain of more than $800,000. He also correctly bet that Democrats would win the Texas Senate race, locking in about $106,000. Decrypt also found that on an ordinary trading day in March, the top earner on the leaderboard made just $154,000.
That same night, Bitcoin was far less calm. During the vote count, $BTC briefly fell to $75,618, a seven-week low, before bouncing back near $78,000 over the next three hours. Cointelegraph reported about $288 million in long liquidations over 24 hours. According to Kelly Ye, head of research at Talos, after polling stations closed, the odds of a Democratic sweep on Kalshi surged from about 74% to 99%. In Ye’s view, election night made it crystal clear just how quickly round-the-clock markets can move while traditional exchanges are closed.
But he hasn’t got all his money in hand yet. The results in Alaska are still outstanding, and Polymarket puts the odds of an upset there at 14%. If the race flips, his biggest position could lose. The way I see it, people can look at the same vote count and one makes more than $800,000 while another gets liquidated—the only difference is being on the right side of the bet.
If you were holding this $1.48 million position, would you sell half now and lock in the profit, or wait for the final vote in Alaska?
See today’s other highlights in the image 👆
⚠️ Not investment advice · DYOR
#中期选举 #Polymarket #币圈晚报
This article is sponsored by AVE
https://share.ave.ai?lang=en&code=nancy.c0813
