Last night I said $76,000 was the line in the sand. Overnight, it really did break through—the low was $75,736—before $BTC turned around and bounced back to around $78,200. This move made one thing clear: it’s not that the line in the sand was useless; it’s that the three sets of books are telling different stories.
First, the ETF books are still showing selling. On November 3, net outflows were $115.6 million—70% less than Monday’s $398.6 million—but the three-day total still came to $1.16 billion. IBIT alone saw $95 million leave on Tuesday. Selling pressure is easing, but it hasn’t stopped.
Next, the options books are showing buying. On Election Day, Paradigm handled $660 million in block options trades, more than twice the previous day’s volume. Of that, $420 million was spent buying calls, while only $105 million in calls were sold. Spot ETFs are seeing outflows, while options traders are betting on the way in—that’s the divergence in a nutshell.
Sentiment is the most lagging indicator. Santiment’s data shows the ratio of positive to negative retail comments has fallen to 0.51, with negative comments nearly twice as common as positive ones. The price has made a V-shaped recovery, but sentiment is still stuck in the pit.
The takeaway is simple: buyers are stepping in to support the rebound, but the wall between $80,000 and $82,000 is still there. The $82,000 level cited by 10x Research is a target for an oversold bounce, not a level already reached. Until outflows turn positive, this move can only be called a stabilization—not a reversal.
Just my personal opinion, not financial advice.
#USMidtermElections #Bitcoin #CryptoNews
Will we reclaim $80,000 tonight, or retest $76,000 first? Pick a side in the comments.
First, the ETF books are still showing selling. On November 3, net outflows were $115.6 million—70% less than Monday’s $398.6 million—but the three-day total still came to $1.16 billion. IBIT alone saw $95 million leave on Tuesday. Selling pressure is easing, but it hasn’t stopped.
Next, the options books are showing buying. On Election Day, Paradigm handled $660 million in block options trades, more than twice the previous day’s volume. Of that, $420 million was spent buying calls, while only $105 million in calls were sold. Spot ETFs are seeing outflows, while options traders are betting on the way in—that’s the divergence in a nutshell.
Sentiment is the most lagging indicator. Santiment’s data shows the ratio of positive to negative retail comments has fallen to 0.51, with negative comments nearly twice as common as positive ones. The price has made a V-shaped recovery, but sentiment is still stuck in the pit.
The takeaway is simple: buyers are stepping in to support the rebound, but the wall between $80,000 and $82,000 is still there. The $82,000 level cited by 10x Research is a target for an oversold bounce, not a level already reached. Until outflows turn positive, this move can only be called a stabilization—not a reversal.
Just my personal opinion, not financial advice.
#USMidtermElections #Bitcoin #CryptoNews
Will we reclaim $80,000 tonight, or retest $76,000 first? Pick a side in the comments.
