Is the CLARITY Act dead after the Democrats’ midterm victory? The market had already buried it for 2026. What really shifted overnight was 2027.
On Kalshi, the contract “a crypto market structure law before January 1, 2027” is trading around 6% on 4/11 (last trade at 6.4%), roughly the same level as at the end of October. Nothing new there.
The contract “before January 1, 2028,” meanwhile, climbed as high as 33% at 04:00 UTC, then fell back to 19% around 11:00 UTC, as results showed Democrats winning the House and Senate, according to the AP. It was worth about 23% on 10/25. Note that the market is thin: 17% to buy, 21% to sell.
Why such a pullback? The bill (H.R. 3633) passed the House 294 to 134 in July 2025, then failed in the Senate on 09/15 in a procedural vote, 49 to 50. If it isn’t signed before the new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027, the whole process has to start over. According to CoinDesk, Elizabeth Warren has a good chance of taking over the Senate Banking Committee, and Jaret Seiberg (TD Cowen) doesn’t see the bill passing in the next two years.
My take: for $BTC and $ETH , this isn’t a short-term shock; the market had already priced in this scenario, and this morning’s rebound confirms it. It’s mainly a delay to the U.S. legal framework, and thus to the big institutional money that was waiting for it.
- The only window left: the “lame duck” session before January. Senator Angela Alsobrooks says a vote is still possible; the 6% contract suggests otherwise.
- Otherwise, action will come through agencies (SEC, CFTC) rather than Congress.
In your view, would a crypto law drafted by a Democratic Congress be worse for the industry, or just slower?
#CLARITYAct #Kalshi
On Kalshi, the contract “a crypto market structure law before January 1, 2027” is trading around 6% on 4/11 (last trade at 6.4%), roughly the same level as at the end of October. Nothing new there.
The contract “before January 1, 2028,” meanwhile, climbed as high as 33% at 04:00 UTC, then fell back to 19% around 11:00 UTC, as results showed Democrats winning the House and Senate, according to the AP. It was worth about 23% on 10/25. Note that the market is thin: 17% to buy, 21% to sell.
Why such a pullback? The bill (H.R. 3633) passed the House 294 to 134 in July 2025, then failed in the Senate on 09/15 in a procedural vote, 49 to 50. If it isn’t signed before the new Congress convenes on January 3, 2027, the whole process has to start over. According to CoinDesk, Elizabeth Warren has a good chance of taking over the Senate Banking Committee, and Jaret Seiberg (TD Cowen) doesn’t see the bill passing in the next two years.
My take: for $BTC and $ETH , this isn’t a short-term shock; the market had already priced in this scenario, and this morning’s rebound confirms it. It’s mainly a delay to the U.S. legal framework, and thus to the big institutional money that was waiting for it.
- The only window left: the “lame duck” session before January. Senator Angela Alsobrooks says a vote is still possible; the 6% contract suggests otherwise.
- Otherwise, action will come through agencies (SEC, CFTC) rather than Congress.
In your view, would a crypto law drafted by a Democratic Congress be worse for the industry, or just slower?
#CLARITYAct #Kalshi
