Market Maker’s View: $BTC broke down in the morning but didn’t go far; reclaimed the level in the afternoon, watching for a new high tonight
20:37 snapshot: Current price 78,243.4; 24h high 78,690.8 / low 75,690.1; approximately +1.00% over 24h.
Open interest: 35,304.8 coins, approximately $2.762 billion, up about 2,351.6 coins from midday; funding rate +0.008%/8h.
In a sample of 100 trades over about 1.3 seconds, aggressive sells accounted for 84 and buys for 16. This is only a reference for that moment, not evidence of market direction.
━━━
Full-day review: Those two morning closes were the easiest thing to misread today.
10:00 closed at 76,131.5, breaking below 76,472 by $340.5; 11:00 closed at 76,450.2, with the second close still below the level, by $21.8.
By the criteria in the midday post, this was the trigger for a downward continuation—but that continuation never came.
12:00 closed at 77,345.7, reclaiming 76,472 in one candle; its high was 77,577.8, just $7.7 above 77,570.1 on the wick, while the close was still $224.4 short—it didn’t hold above the level.
13:00 closed at 77,716.6, the first close above 77,570.1, by $146.5. Only then was the breakdown invalidated.
The 14:00 close was 77,965, 15:00 closed at 78,105.3, 16:00 at 78,461.9, 17:00 at 78,360.3, 18:00 at 78,569.6, and 19:00 at 78,440.5. All six closes were above 77,570.1, steadily edging higher; the 19:00 high of 78,690.8 set a new 24h high.
The 20:00 candle is still in progress: high 78,466.3 / low 77,976, current price 78,243.4, which is $447.4 below the 24h high. An in-progress candle doesn’t count as a close.
━━━
If I were the market maker, this is how I’d work through the trade:
After two morning closes below the level, selling looked like it had the direction right. Short sellers entered around 76,131.5 to 76,450.2.
The 12:00 candle rallied back to 77,345.7, immediately putting short sellers deeply in the red; then the 13:00 candle closed above 77,570.1, shifting their situation from “waiting for continuation” to “waiting for the level to be reclaimed and the breakdown invalidated.”
All six afternoon closes stayed above the level. That wasn’t luck on a single candle: not one close fell back below it all afternoon. This suggests that the positions accumulated below the level were pushed higher one candle at a time, rather than simply lifted by retail traders.
By the 19:00 new 24h high, the morning short entries were far below. Tonight, control isn’t with the shorts; it depends on whether the new high can hold on a closing basis.
━━━
Retail traders following the market maker should wait for confirmation at the close, not guess while a candle is in progress:
Tonight, watch only the 21:00 close. This is the first decisive checkpoint.
A 1H close above 78,690.8 confirms continuation to a new high.
A 1H close back below 77,570.1 invalidates the afternoon reclaim; reassess the range between the two levels.
A 1H close below 76,472 re-establishes downward continuation; then watch 76,260.
Wicks crossing or breaking a level do not count as triggers. The close is what matters.
For discussion only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerView
20:37 snapshot: Current price 78,243.4; 24h high 78,690.8 / low 75,690.1; approximately +1.00% over 24h.
Open interest: 35,304.8 coins, approximately $2.762 billion, up about 2,351.6 coins from midday; funding rate +0.008%/8h.
In a sample of 100 trades over about 1.3 seconds, aggressive sells accounted for 84 and buys for 16. This is only a reference for that moment, not evidence of market direction.
━━━
Full-day review: Those two morning closes were the easiest thing to misread today.
10:00 closed at 76,131.5, breaking below 76,472 by $340.5; 11:00 closed at 76,450.2, with the second close still below the level, by $21.8.
By the criteria in the midday post, this was the trigger for a downward continuation—but that continuation never came.
12:00 closed at 77,345.7, reclaiming 76,472 in one candle; its high was 77,577.8, just $7.7 above 77,570.1 on the wick, while the close was still $224.4 short—it didn’t hold above the level.
13:00 closed at 77,716.6, the first close above 77,570.1, by $146.5. Only then was the breakdown invalidated.
The 14:00 close was 77,965, 15:00 closed at 78,105.3, 16:00 at 78,461.9, 17:00 at 78,360.3, 18:00 at 78,569.6, and 19:00 at 78,440.5. All six closes were above 77,570.1, steadily edging higher; the 19:00 high of 78,690.8 set a new 24h high.
The 20:00 candle is still in progress: high 78,466.3 / low 77,976, current price 78,243.4, which is $447.4 below the 24h high. An in-progress candle doesn’t count as a close.
━━━
If I were the market maker, this is how I’d work through the trade:
After two morning closes below the level, selling looked like it had the direction right. Short sellers entered around 76,131.5 to 76,450.2.
The 12:00 candle rallied back to 77,345.7, immediately putting short sellers deeply in the red; then the 13:00 candle closed above 77,570.1, shifting their situation from “waiting for continuation” to “waiting for the level to be reclaimed and the breakdown invalidated.”
All six afternoon closes stayed above the level. That wasn’t luck on a single candle: not one close fell back below it all afternoon. This suggests that the positions accumulated below the level were pushed higher one candle at a time, rather than simply lifted by retail traders.
By the 19:00 new 24h high, the morning short entries were far below. Tonight, control isn’t with the shorts; it depends on whether the new high can hold on a closing basis.
━━━
Retail traders following the market maker should wait for confirmation at the close, not guess while a candle is in progress:
Tonight, watch only the 21:00 close. This is the first decisive checkpoint.
A 1H close above 78,690.8 confirms continuation to a new high.
A 1H close back below 77,570.1 invalidates the afternoon reclaim; reassess the range between the two levels.
A 1H close below 76,472 re-establishes downward continuation; then watch 76,260.
Wicks crossing or breaking a level do not count as triggers. The close is what matters.
For discussion only; not investment advice.
#BinanceSquare #BTC #MarketMakerView
