【Today’s Top Headlines at a Glance｜11/4】
• $BTC spot is around 78175, down from about 77180 in the earlier report and around 78589 in an evening trending post; 24h high is about 78718 and low about 75736. It climbed from around 75736 to the 78718 area during the day, then gave back its gains and slipped below 78.2 in the evening; still about 3825 short of 82
• The Fear & Greed Index remains at 34 (Fear). It recovered from 26 to 34 after the morning report and hasn’t moved since; still not a signal to buy the dip
• U.S. midterm election results are in: Foreign media report that Democrats have regained control of both the House and Senate; several crypto-friendly Republican representatives lost their seats, and crypto legislation opponent Maxine Waters may chair the House Financial Services Committee; Fortune says Democrats will focus on the Trump family’s crypto businesses, with WLFI potentially becoming the first target of an investigation
• Binance’s latest recovery update remains Update #6 (11/3): starting 11/3 at 04:00 UTC, another batch of network/asset withdrawals was reopened, with a gradual rollout prioritized by demand and following security checks; deposits are unaffected. The post gave no new dollar figures for withdrawals. The latest figures remain those from around 23:30 China Standard Time on 11/1: about $4.65B withdrawn and net outflows of about $3.64B. Update #5 details are unchanged: the 10/31 PoR is fully zk-verifiable, and the next snapshot is planned for today, 11/4; no new snapshot announcement had appeared in the listings as of this report. On DefiLlama’s figures, Binance had net inflows of about $650M over 24 hours, total platform assets of about $130.7B, and net outflows of about $10.3B over the past week
• Farside’s full Tuesday (11/3) figures: BTC had net outflows of about $115.6M, and ETH had net outflows of about $85.3M. Monday’s (11/2) full figures remain BTC about −$398.6M and ETH about −$139.7M; Friday’s (10/30) remain BTC about −$643.2M and ETH about −$155.7M. Across the three trading days since Friday, spot BTC ETFs saw total net outflows of about $1.157B. Wednesday (11/4) is still shown as a dash
• Polymarket puts the odds of a 25-bp rate hike in December at about 78.5%, and holding rates steady at about 20.5%—a little more hawkish than the morning briefing’s roughly 74.5%
• Oil: WTI around $96.6 and Brent around $104.4, slightly higher than Tuesday’s settlements (about $96.09/$103.60); the Middle East and Iran situation continues to price in a risk premium
• French media confirmed that Crédit Mutuel Arkéa was attacked, with more than $133M involved; the bank says customers lost no funds. The victim was its online bank Fortuneo, and funds were moved into exchange accounts using forged KYC documents
• On-chain: James Wynn’s 40x leveraged BTC short was liquidated again, at around $78,228—close to the evening market price. L2BEAT has been renamed ETHBEAT, expanding its coverage to the broader Ethereum ecosystem
• Tether reported Q3 net profit of about $1.5B and total reserve assets of about $191.45B; Alchemy Pay received a money transmitter license in Mississippi, bringing the number of U.S. states where it is licensed to 20
• CFTC Chair Selig’s statement remains in effect: single-stock perpetual futures can make their debut on designated contract markets registered with the SEC through simultaneous notice; how this unfolds after the election shift is another matter
The morning market briefing said fear had risen to 34, while 77 was still consolidating.
During the day, price climbed from about $75,736 to around $78,718; an evening trending post cited about $78,589, and price has since pulled back to around $78,175. Fear & Greed is still at 34.
Democrats have taken Congress; don’t mistake the rebound for a trend.
Trading outlook
Cautious, leaning defensive. Price reached around $78,718 but failed to hold, then slipped below $78.2K in the evening. Update #6 has reopened withdrawals, but $3.64B in net outflows is still the latest official figure. The election has also turned the page on regulatory pricing, so keep positions small.
Don’t catch a falling knife with longs around $75.7K–$78.7K. If trading, wait for subsequent withdrawal batches to run smoothly for a while, and for the 4-hour chart to first hold $78.5K–$79K; then see whether price can reclaim $80K–$81.5K. Place the stop below $76K. If it can’t hold, exit: first watch $75,736 below, then $75K–$74K. Don’t bet that the daytime move to $78,718 confirmed a breakout.
For shorts, wait for a failed rebound around $78.5K–$79.5K before trying a small position, with a stop above $80K. If the 4-hour chart gets back above $80K, abandon the short thesis. Don’t chase shorts around $75.7K–$77.2K: liquidity can still get swept after the election, and the withdrawal window remains open. Wynn’s 40x short was liquidated around $78,228, right near the market price; don’t go head-to-head with positions like that in the short term.
Tuesday’s full ETF figures showed another roughly $116M outflow from BTC and $85.3M from ETH. From Friday through Tuesday, BTC saw about $1.157B in outflows across three trading days; don’t treat it as a turning point before Wednesday’s official figures come out. Fear & Greed at 34 only means sentiment isn’t that dire—don’t rely on this number to buy the dip. December rate-hike pricing is around 78%; don’t lean on a hold to support a short-term easing narrative. After Democrats took Congress, in addition to Clarity stalling for the year, watch investigations and committee changes. Keep positions small, not large.
ETH is around $2,317, having risen alongside BTC during the day; its 24-hour high was about $2,339 and low about $2,226. First watch $2,339–$2,350 above, then $2,226 below, followed by $2,200. Don’t treat ETH on its own as a leading indicator and buy the dip aggressively.
Heating up
The board overall is warmer than the morning briefing, but only half as hot as the evening trending post. On the hot side: LIT about +9.6%, with roughly $26.5M in volume—real volume; ZEC about +7.6%, with roughly $106M in volume—very real volume; LSK about +12.5%, but thin at roughly $1.2M; PONS about +7.7%, with roughly $4.8M; ENA about +5.1%; PUMP about +2.8%, with real volume, though its gain has cooled from the trending post. On the cool side: TRUMP about −9.4%, with roughly $10.9M in volume—real volume—and falling harder; HUMA about −11.7%; IRYS about −7.5%, turning red again during the day after being green in the morning. Hot and cold can flip quickly; treat hot coins as satellite positions.
Treat hot coins as satellite positions; the main themes remain $BTC’s price level, Binance’s subsequent withdrawal batches and planned PoR snapshot, and regulatory repricing after the election.
Technical analysis
$BTC daily chart: 10/30 high around $81,970, low around $76,519; 24-hour high around $78,718, low around $75,736, current price around $78,175. The morning briefing had it around $77,180; during the day it first tested nearly $78.7K, then fell back below $78.2K. $82K was the level lost last Thursday, and price is still about $3,825 short of it; in the evening it hovered around $78K. Resistance: $78.5K → $79K → $80K → $81.5K → $82K. Unless the 4-hour chart holds $78.5K–$79K, treat rebounds as areas to trim or try shorts, not as an immediate bottom. Price levels come first; watch whether $75,736 holds.
ETH is around $2,317, lagging slightly; don’t try to call a bottom based on it alone. SOL around $92.8 and BNB around $700 are both weak (BNB is also still feeling the aftereffects of the exchange event). XRP around $1.278 rose and then pulled back during the day; don’t buy the dips in altcoins while the market is weak.
MEME
DOGE around $0.0746 is flat to slightly red; PEPE is up about 2.5%, moving somewhat independently. When major coins pulled back to $78K, MEME tokens showed no unified direction. PUMP is up about 2.8% with real volume—treat it as a satellite position and don’t chase; TRUMP is still selling off, down about 9.4%; BONK is up about 6% on thin volume. Neither is a hedge.
Events to watch for trading
• Binance Update #6 follow-up withdrawal batches and actual rollout, network status page, next PoR snapshot after Update #5 (around 11/4), and zk progress; net outflows of about $3.64B remain the latest official disclosure, so keep short-term positions small
• After the U.S. midterm elections: with Democrats in control of Congress, watch for changes to the House Financial Services Committee and the pace of investigations into Trump family crypto businesses such as WLFI; regulatory repricing after Clarity stalled for the year
• The Fed has held rates steady; watch the December path. Polymarket puts the odds of a 25-bp hike in December at about 78%
• Full Tuesday ETF figures: BTC about −$116M, ETH about −$85.3M; BTC total from Friday through Tuesday about −$1.157B. Once Wednesday’s official figures are released, first see whether this makes four consecutive days of redemptions
• Can BTC hold $75,736? Only consider longs after it holds $78.5K–$79K on the 4-hour chart
• Fear & Greed is still at 34; treat it only as a sentiment gauge, not a buy-the-dip signal
• After the peak in contract liquidations, will there be a second wave of deleveraging? Watch highly leveraged positions close to the current price
• Whether oil prices and the Middle East/Iran situation will reprice the risk premium