The question “Why choose it?” is interpreted here as: why is now a worthwhile time to consider crypto assets, what is the allocation rationale, and which areas should be selected?
Bullish (reasons to choose it):
Uncertainty premium unwinds: The election, the biggest short-term variable, is now behind us. Historical experience suggests risk assets often recover once “the shoe drops.” Thielen of 10x Research notes that BTC’s daily stochastic indicator has entered oversold territory, with a rebound target of $82,000.
Technicals are fundamentally different: BTC is currently trading above its 200-day moving average (about $73,148). In comparison, during the three midterm elections in 2014 / 2018 / 2022, $BTC was respectively 35% / 9% / 22% below its 200-day moving average and in a long-term downtrend; this year’s pattern has fundamentally reversed.
Historical cycles are bullish: In the 12 months following each of the three elections mentioned above, BTC ultimately posted gains.
“Safe haven” status is strengthening: BTC’s market dominance is as high as 57%–59%, with investors treating BTC as a safe-haven anchor in the crypto market.
Structural capital is shifting toward “hard narratives”: Capital is no longer blindly chasing themes, but flowing into areas with cash flows and institutional interest, such as RWA, DeFi, AI, and high-performance L1s.
Reasons for caution (reasons not to choose it / to reduce exposure):
Weak underlying demand: Spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $515 million last month, and outflows during the first two trading days of November were already close to the entire amount for last month; the $COIN base premium is negative.
Sentiment remains fearful: The Fear and Greed Index is at 34–38, nowhere near greed.
Macroeconomic headwinds: U.S. CPI is expected to be 3.3%–3.4%. High inflation and rising bond yields are limiting inflows of risk capital; the geopolitical situation involving Iran remains unresolved.
Bullish (reasons to choose it):
Uncertainty premium unwinds: The election, the biggest short-term variable, is now behind us. Historical experience suggests risk assets often recover once “the shoe drops.” Thielen of 10x Research notes that BTC’s daily stochastic indicator has entered oversold territory, with a rebound target of $82,000.
Technicals are fundamentally different: BTC is currently trading above its 200-day moving average (about $73,148). In comparison, during the three midterm elections in 2014 / 2018 / 2022, $BTC was respectively 35% / 9% / 22% below its 200-day moving average and in a long-term downtrend; this year’s pattern has fundamentally reversed.
Historical cycles are bullish: In the 12 months following each of the three elections mentioned above, BTC ultimately posted gains.
“Safe haven” status is strengthening: BTC’s market dominance is as high as 57%–59%, with investors treating BTC as a safe-haven anchor in the crypto market.
Structural capital is shifting toward “hard narratives”: Capital is no longer blindly chasing themes, but flowing into areas with cash flows and institutional interest, such as RWA, DeFi, AI, and high-performance L1s.
Reasons for caution (reasons not to choose it / to reduce exposure):
Weak underlying demand: Spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $515 million last month, and outflows during the first two trading days of November were already close to the entire amount for last month; the $COIN base premium is negative.
Sentiment remains fearful: The Fear and Greed Index is at 34–38, nowhere near greed.
Macroeconomic headwinds: U.S. CPI is expected to be 3.3%–3.4%. High inflation and rising bond yields are limiting inflows of risk capital; the geopolitical situation involving Iran remains unresolved.