【Trend Structure】
Don't rush to treat a single bullish candle as a trend reversal. ETH remains in a downtrend structure on the 4H chart; the short-term and broader directions are not yet aligned. Binance spot data as of 11-04 18:53 (Beijing time): current price 2328.43 USDT, 24H +2.58%, high-low range 2226.44–2334.11.
Daily highs and lows are moving lower; recent 4H highs/lows are 2313.5/2226.44, compared with 2317.84/2247.84 in the preceding period. The assessment is based on changes in highs and lows, not on a single day's gains or losses. The 1H chart is consolidating, with RSI at 67.2; the short-term reading has not entered an extreme zone.
【Technical Signals】
Price is above the 4H MA20 (2273.27); MA50/200 are 2288.58/2444.98. The short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages are aligned downward, so the recovery still faces resistance. 4H RSI(14) is 56.6, indicating relatively strong momentum; MACD's DIF is below the zero line and its positive histogram bars are expanding, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. This only validates the structure and does not constitute an entry signal on its own.
The latest 4H volume is 1.81 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, indicating increased trading activity, but a breakout close and subsequent retest still need to be observed. 24H trading volume is 466 million USDT; prioritize spot volume and do not use unavailable futures data to infer market crowding.
【Key Levels】
First resistance: 2350.13–2356.62; second resistance: 2388.3–2394.8. First support: 2314.59–2321.09; second support: 2285.33–2291.82. These levels reference the 1dMA20, recent 1d high, previous 4H high, and 4hMA50, respectively. The zones allow for a margin based on the 4H price range; they are not precise prediction points.
【What to Watch Next】
Bullish scenario: If a 4H candle closes above the first resistance with volume increasing in tandem, and the level holds on a retest, then watch the second resistance. An intraday spike above the level alone does not count as holding above it.
Bearish scenario: If the price retreats after rising or closes below the first support, watch how the second support holds. A move back below the breakout zone invalidates the bullish assessment; if price breaks down and quickly reclaims support, the bearish scenario should be reassessed. Wait for confirmation from the close and retest; don't treat a single move up or down as a reversal of the broader trend.
Are you more focused on a closing confirmation at the first resistance, or on support holding during a retest of the first support?
【Reference Trading Plan】
Direction: long; limit entry after confirmation at 2318.5, stop-loss at 2285.5, take-profit at 2353.5 USDT; planned risk-reward ratio 1.06:1 (excluding fees).
Trigger: A 1H candle closes and holds above 2322 with increased volume, then place a limit long order on a retest of 2318 if it holds. After confirmation, wait using a limit order at the specified entry price only; do not chase the price. The plan is invalidated if the stop-loss is hit or if the order is not filled within 8 hours of the data timestamp.
The analysis is based on the multi-timeframe structure, moving averages, RSI, MACD, and volume discussed above. Parameters were determined by AI, and the risk-reward ratio was recalculated using the listed limit prices.
The above is technical price analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
Don't rush to treat a single bullish candle as a trend reversal. ETH remains in a downtrend structure on the 4H chart; the short-term and broader directions are not yet aligned. Binance spot data as of 11-04 18:53 (Beijing time): current price 2328.43 USDT, 24H +2.58%, high-low range 2226.44–2334.11.
Daily highs and lows are moving lower; recent 4H highs/lows are 2313.5/2226.44, compared with 2317.84/2247.84 in the preceding period. The assessment is based on changes in highs and lows, not on a single day's gains or losses. The 1H chart is consolidating, with RSI at 67.2; the short-term reading has not entered an extreme zone.
【Technical Signals】
Price is above the 4H MA20 (2273.27); MA50/200 are 2288.58/2444.98. The short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages are aligned downward, so the recovery still faces resistance. 4H RSI(14) is 56.6, indicating relatively strong momentum; MACD's DIF is below the zero line and its positive histogram bars are expanding, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. This only validates the structure and does not constitute an entry signal on its own.
The latest 4H volume is 1.81 times the average volume of the previous 20 bars, indicating increased trading activity, but a breakout close and subsequent retest still need to be observed. 24H trading volume is 466 million USDT; prioritize spot volume and do not use unavailable futures data to infer market crowding.
【Key Levels】
First resistance: 2350.13–2356.62; second resistance: 2388.3–2394.8. First support: 2314.59–2321.09; second support: 2285.33–2291.82. These levels reference the 1dMA20, recent 1d high, previous 4H high, and 4hMA50, respectively. The zones allow for a margin based on the 4H price range; they are not precise prediction points.
【What to Watch Next】
Bullish scenario: If a 4H candle closes above the first resistance with volume increasing in tandem, and the level holds on a retest, then watch the second resistance. An intraday spike above the level alone does not count as holding above it.
Bearish scenario: If the price retreats after rising or closes below the first support, watch how the second support holds. A move back below the breakout zone invalidates the bullish assessment; if price breaks down and quickly reclaims support, the bearish scenario should be reassessed. Wait for confirmation from the close and retest; don't treat a single move up or down as a reversal of the broader trend.
Are you more focused on a closing confirmation at the first resistance, or on support holding during a retest of the first support?
【Reference Trading Plan】
Direction: long; limit entry after confirmation at 2318.5, stop-loss at 2285.5, take-profit at 2353.5 USDT; planned risk-reward ratio 1.06:1 (excluding fees).
Trigger: A 1H candle closes and holds above 2322 with increased volume, then place a limit long order on a retest of 2318 if it holds. After confirmation, wait using a limit order at the specified entry price only; do not chase the price. The plan is invalidated if the stop-loss is hit or if the order is not filled within 8 hours of the data timestamp.
The analysis is based on the multi-timeframe structure, moving averages, RSI, MACD, and volume discussed above. Parameters were determined by AI, and the risk-reward ratio was recalculated using the listed limit prices.
The above is technical price analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.
