#USMidterms-WhatAreMarketsExpecting? Election night 101 for $SPCX holders.
What you need to know before you panic sell or buy the dip:
1. Nasdaq futures dropped 1.35% overnight on the Texas governor race. Futures. Thin trading. 2am.
2. The fear: a new governor "ices" the data center buildout.
3. What a governor can do alone: pick grid regulators (the Texas Senate has to confirm them), push the grid operator, veto bills.
4. What needs the legislature: killing data center tax breaks, rewriting grid laws, any moratorium. Earliest that becomes law: around Sep 2027.
5. Texas was already squeezing data centers before tonight. Grid hook-ups for big new loads were paused months ago.
6. SpaceX launch licences are federal. Not Texas.
7. xAI's compute is in Tennessee and Mississippi. Both red states. Not Texas.
8. Congress likely flipped too. A blue Congress can hold hearings on SpaceX. It can't cut SpaceX funding without the president signing it. Overriding him needs 2/3 of both chambers.
9. SpaceX flew 161 of 195 FAA-licensed launches last year. 83%.
10. Dragon is the only working US crew ride. Starliner doesn't fly crew again until 2028.
11. 2016 election night: Dow futures -800. Next day the Dow closed +1.4%.
Headline risk is real. Business risk is mostly noise.
Washington can change. The need for SpaceX doesn't.
If it opens red, that's a discount, not a thesis change.
$SPCX
What you need to know before you panic sell or buy the dip:
1. Nasdaq futures dropped 1.35% overnight on the Texas governor race. Futures. Thin trading. 2am.
2. The fear: a new governor "ices" the data center buildout.
3. What a governor can do alone: pick grid regulators (the Texas Senate has to confirm them), push the grid operator, veto bills.
4. What needs the legislature: killing data center tax breaks, rewriting grid laws, any moratorium. Earliest that becomes law: around Sep 2027.
5. Texas was already squeezing data centers before tonight. Grid hook-ups for big new loads were paused months ago.
6. SpaceX launch licences are federal. Not Texas.
7. xAI's compute is in Tennessee and Mississippi. Both red states. Not Texas.
8. Congress likely flipped too. A blue Congress can hold hearings on SpaceX. It can't cut SpaceX funding without the president signing it. Overriding him needs 2/3 of both chambers.
9. SpaceX flew 161 of 195 FAA-licensed launches last year. 83%.
10. Dragon is the only working US crew ride. Starliner doesn't fly crew again until 2028.
11. 2016 election night: Dow futures -800. Next day the Dow closed +1.4%.
Headline risk is real. Business risk is mostly noise.
Washington can change. The need for SpaceX doesn't.
If it opens red, that's a discount, not a thesis change.
$SPCX
