$AKE This isn’t “it’s fallen so much it’s due for a bounce.” This is a downtrend that hasn’t run its course yet, and I’m staying with the bears.
Let’s lay out the numbers first: the 10-26 close was still at 0.0305, while today’s low hit 0.002805. That’s a drop of over 90% in ten days, with nine of the ten daily candles closing red. The few bounces along the way lasted just one or two green candles before getting knocked back down. Buyers simply can’t absorb the selling.
The numbers that make me most confident are the open interest figures:
Contract open interest rose from around 1.6 billion coins on the evening of 11-02 to 3.1 billion now—roughly doubling the number of coins. But the open interest value in U has stayed stuck around 9.5 million. The price has been cut in half, the number of coins has doubled, and the total value is unchanged. That suggests wave after wave of traders are opening new positions at lower levels, and most of those positions are longs.
The long-to-short ratio across all accounts has hovered between 60% and 64% today, while large holders’ long positions are only around 50%. Retail traders keep buying the dip, but big money isn’t following. In this setup, longs are just fuel. The funding rate is near 0, so shorts aren’t crowded either—there’s no sign of a short squeeze.
Here’s how I see the key levels:
0.0040 is where the price started falling this morning, and it’s the first resistance level. Above that, 0.0050 is the 11-02 closing price. Until the price reclaims it, any bounce is just a chance for shorts to get a better entry. There’s no substantial high-volume support zone below here. If today’s low of 0.002805 breaks, the downward momentum could carry the price even lower.
My view is clear: watch how the price behaves near 0.0040 on a bounce. If it can’t get above that level, I’ll remain bearish. If a 4-hour candle closes and holds above 0.0040, then the bearish thesis is invalidated, and I’ll reassess from a different angle.
For those still holding AKE longs: what’s your entry price? Are you planning to ride it out, or wait for a bounce to sell some? Share your reasoning.
#AKE #山寨币 #合约持仓 #MarketAnalysis
Let’s lay out the numbers first: the 10-26 close was still at 0.0305, while today’s low hit 0.002805. That’s a drop of over 90% in ten days, with nine of the ten daily candles closing red. The few bounces along the way lasted just one or two green candles before getting knocked back down. Buyers simply can’t absorb the selling.
The numbers that make me most confident are the open interest figures:
Contract open interest rose from around 1.6 billion coins on the evening of 11-02 to 3.1 billion now—roughly doubling the number of coins. But the open interest value in U has stayed stuck around 9.5 million. The price has been cut in half, the number of coins has doubled, and the total value is unchanged. That suggests wave after wave of traders are opening new positions at lower levels, and most of those positions are longs.
The long-to-short ratio across all accounts has hovered between 60% and 64% today, while large holders’ long positions are only around 50%. Retail traders keep buying the dip, but big money isn’t following. In this setup, longs are just fuel. The funding rate is near 0, so shorts aren’t crowded either—there’s no sign of a short squeeze.
Here’s how I see the key levels:
0.0040 is where the price started falling this morning, and it’s the first resistance level. Above that, 0.0050 is the 11-02 closing price. Until the price reclaims it, any bounce is just a chance for shorts to get a better entry. There’s no substantial high-volume support zone below here. If today’s low of 0.002805 breaks, the downward momentum could carry the price even lower.
My view is clear: watch how the price behaves near 0.0040 on a bounce. If it can’t get above that level, I’ll remain bearish. If a 4-hour candle closes and holds above 0.0040, then the bearish thesis is invalidated, and I’ll reassess from a different angle.
For those still holding AKE longs: what’s your entry price? Are you planning to ride it out, or wait for a bounce to sell some? Share your reasoning.
#AKE #山寨币 #合约持仓 #MarketAnalysis
